NOAA’s El Niño forecast points to a strong-to-very strong event lasting into early 2027 as warming continues in the tropical Pacific. The latest NOAA figures show a powerful event, but they also show why “record” depends on which measurement is used.
The Washington Post published an interactive report describing this year’s El Niño as having reached record strength and asking where extreme weather could follow. This article draws its figures from NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center, the official U.S. source for El Niño monitoring.
What NOAA’s El Niño forecast says
In its October 8 diagnostic discussion, the Climate Prediction Center said El Niño “continues to strengthen,” with a strong-to-very strong event likely through January–March 2027. It put the chance of that outcome above 83%.
The agency also said chances remain high for a historic event, one that would exceed every El Niño since 1950 on its relative index (+2.5°C or more over a three-month period). It put those odds at 54% for September–November, 83% for October–December and 70% for November–January.
NOAA’s November 9 update kept the El Niño Advisory in place. It showed the latest weekly Niño-3.4 anomaly at 2.3°C and the most recent three-month relative index, for August–October, at 2.0°C. It said El Niño is expected to persist through March–May 2027, with ENSO-neutral conditions favored by April–June.
Why “record” depends on the measure
The strongest signal is near South America’s coast. NOAA’s November 10 ocean briefing said the Niño 1+2 index reached 5.3°C in October, the warmest month on record since 1950 and above the 1997 value.
Farther west, in the Niño-3.4 region that forecasters use to classify events, the picture is more measured. The same briefing put October’s relative Niño-3.4 reading at 2.2°C on one dataset and 2.5°C on another, ranking second-warmest for October since 1950 and slightly below 1997.
NOAA notes that indices built from different sea-surface-temperature products can differ by more than 0.3°C. Headlines about a record can therefore be accurate for one region or dataset and still differ from another.
Where the forecasts point next
NOAA’s CFSv2 model forecast, cited in the November briefing, has El Niño peaking at about 3.4°C in December 2026. That is a model projection, not an observation, and the agency’s official outlook is the consolidated guidance forecasters use.
Other parts of the climate system are responding too. The briefing reported that a positive Indian Ocean Dipole event was established in October and is expected to continue through the end of 2026. It also noted marine heat waves in the central-eastern tropical Pacific and off the California coast.
NOAA’s briefing said Atlantic hurricane activity through early November remained well below normal. The agency’s August outlook update had raised the chance of a below-normal season to 75%, citing the expected strengthening of El Niño among the main factors.
What this does not tell you
NOAA stresses that with an event of this size the chances of El Niño-consistent impacts are larger, “though not guaranteed.” Seasonal outlooks show shifts in probability; they do not predict a flood, drought or heat wave in a particular place.
The next monthly NOAA diagnostic discussion was scheduled for November 12. Figures in this article come from the October 8 discussion and the November 9 and 10 briefings, and they may be revised when the new discussion is reviewed.
