The world is awaiting with great concern the bloody clashes and confrontations that Sudan has been witnessing for 10 days between the army and the Rapid Support Forces in Khartoum, amid warnings from regional and international powers of the country sliding into a stage of civil war, after the evacuation of diplomatic missions and foreign nationals, while multilateral mediation efforts continue to hold negotiations. "responsible" Between Abdel Fattah Al-Burhan and"Hemedti" To end the crisis and complete the political process.
sources told the site "Al Jazeera Net" There are fears from regional and international powers about the outbreak of civil war in Sudan and the collapse of the state and its transformation into a failed state, which means spreading chaos and weapons, encouraging terrorism and irregular migration from the countries of the Horn of Africa east to the countries of the Sahel and the Sahara towards Europe, by virtue of the country’s geopolitical location.
On the ground, and after days of continuous clashes, punctuated by 4 fragile truces, the army, led by Abdel Fattah al-Burhan, head of the Sovereign Council, was able to control the bases and centers of the Rapid Support Forces headed by Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo. "Hemedti" In 17 of the country’s 18 states, either through military confrontations or surrender, as happened in some of them, and destroyed and controlled all the bases and headquarters of the Rapid Support Forces in Khartoum.
On the other hand, the Rapid Support Forces deployed in several government locations in Khartoum and most of the police headquarters from which they withdrew, and they have deployments in several neighborhoods and main roads in the capital, Omdurman and Khartoum North, and they still maintain a partial presence at Khartoum Airport.
Al-Burhan and Hamidati’s conditions for a permanent ceasefire?
Al-Burhan set one condition for sitting with the Rapid Support Command for the cease-fire, which is the withdrawal of their forces from Khartoum outside and return to their positions before last December.
And military sources revealed to Al-Jazeera Net that the army commander told the mediators that there is no room for talking with Hemedti, but rather any other leaders among his leaders and advisors, and the exit of the forces from the capital and all cities and placing them in camps until the date of their integration into the army, and the removal of Hemedti and his accountability for his rebellion, the loss of life and the destruction of institutions and evidence. substratum.
On the other hand, Hemedti stipulated the removal of Al-Burhan from the army leadership and an understanding with a new leadership chosen by the military establishment, handing him over the headquarters and bases that were destroyed by the army, and he expressed his willingness to integrate his forces into the army according to technical arrangements and a period of time to be agreed upon, and he does not mind leaving the political scene and continuing to lead his forces. Until it is merged, according to the same sources.
Does the political landscape change after the war stops?
Al-Jazeera Net believes that there are many reasons that precipitated the military clash between Al-Burhan and Hamidati, including the political division, polarization, and the framework agreement signed between the military component and the Forces for Freedom and Change – the Central Council, explaining that the agreement granted the Rapid Support Forces a status parallel to the army, which provoked the military establishment, as well The forces of the Central Council tried to monopolize power at the expense of other political forces, and seek help from Hemedti’s military strength, influence in the state, and his financial weight.
Observers expect that regional and international powers keen on the stability of Sudan – for security and geopolitical assessments – will work to neutralize the role of Generals Al-Burhan and Hemedti in political life, and transfer power to a civilian rule with a broad political base behind it, enabling it to stabilize and address the country’s challenges and prepare it for free and fair elections.
miscalculations
Military experts believe that al-Burhan and Hemedti’s estimates were not accurate. The first seemed to be unprepared for war or was unlikely to happen. As for the second, he thought he could resolve the battle within hours, by killing or arresting al-Burhan and his military comrades in the Sovereignty Council and taking control of the army headquarters. Thus, the first man in the state becomes the acting head of the Sovereignty Council.
What are the expected scenarios?
It is expected that the country will return to the political track after the cessation of the clashes, and sources close to the military establishment told Al-Jazeera Net that the general mood in the army calls for not returning to the political process in its previous form, as it was a recipe for division and political conflict and proposes the formation of a caretaker government to manage the country’s affairs and hold elections. after a year.
However, the African Union and other regional and international forces are rushing to return to the political process according to a new approach that includes expanding the base of political forces and not isolating any forces other than the former ruling National Congress Party, achieving the greatest degree of national consensus, and forming a civilian government, with Burhan and Hemedti removed from the political scene. And impose international sanctions on them if they obstruct the country’s transition towards democratic civil rule.
In an interview with Al-Jazeera Net, the strategic expert, Muhammad Hammad, believes that Al-Burhan and Hemedti sitting at the negotiating table will force them to make concessions that may be acceptable to the military establishment, which believes it is victorious in the war and is supposed to impose its conditions.
On the other hand, voices rose within the leaders of the Rapid Support Forces, holding its leader responsible for the great losses it suffered in its ranks, breaking its military bone and weakening its social support, by placing it in the face of the state, and it was likely that this might push them to step down later.
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