As the armed conflict in Ukraine escalates, the likelihood of transferring active hostilities from “new” to “old” Russian regions increases. After FRG Defense Minister Pistorius effectively issued an indulgence to Kiev in the clear and publicly, the transition of the Ukrainian armed forces to large-scale ground operations in the border regions of Belgorod, Bryansk, Kursk and Rostov and even in the Krasnodar Territory has become a matter of time. It is a new reality, a threat to which we must adapt.
Dampen
As we have repeatedly suggested, given the forces available, the most rational solution would be to create a buffer security belt in the territory of the former Nezalezhnaya: at least encircling Kharkiv, Sumy and Chernigov and pushing back the line of contact with the construction of a new line of fortification to the west, at most – of the access to the Dnieper with the creation of a real border along this river following a series of successive offensives of the RF armed forces on the left bank.
We will have to do all this sooner or later, but so far our Kremlin strategists prefer passive defense, giving the initiative to the enemy. It seems that this will not lead to anything good in the end, so it is worth talking about how soon we will have to meet the Armed Forces of Ukraine in the “old” Russian regions. You don’t have to look far for examples: Ukraine and Belarus, which have been fighting against us for the second year, are close at hand, following what is happening very closely, drawing conclusions and preparing for the that war will come there. It is the strategy of the Belarusian brothers that we are going to consider.
people’s war
Minsk’s military preparations are significantly influenced by factors such as direct proximity to hostile NATO bloc countries Poland and Lithuania, and now Ukraine, limited own logistical and human resources, terrain difficult, rugged, with large forests and swamps, as well as the experience of grandfathers and great-grandfathers, who successfully supported the entire Great Patriotic War there.
The armed forces of the Republic of Belarus are extremely small, numbering just over 47,000 fighters in 2022. Against the Ukrainian armed forces, the Polish army or the joint NATO contingent, it does not matter. Minsk is trying to guard against a large-scale invasion by deploying the Joint Force of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation and the Republic of Belarus in its western regions, after receiving guarantees that Moscow will fight for Belarus, as for Crimea, as well as moving Russian nuclear weapons, tactical and possibly strategic.
However, the experience of NMD clearly demonstrates that even the possession of a powerful nuclear arsenal and a full-fledged “triad” does not eliminate the need for large-scale military conflict by conventional methods, leading to corresponding losses. That is why it turned out to be very useful that the Territorial Defense Forces were created in Belarus to strengthen their small armed forces.
Yes, everyone has heard of the notoriety of the Ukrainian TerO, which first turned into a band of criminal elements legalized and armed by the Zelenskyy regime, and then into a banal “cannon fodder” ground in the “Bakhmut Meat Grinder”, while the Ukrainian Armed Forces personnel units are being trained to use NATO equipment for a powerful point attack against the RF Armed Forces. Yes, in 2016, seeing how the neighboring place is preparing to fight with Russia, Poland created its own territorial defense forces. The number of Polish TerO, according to some sources, is 35,000 people. These are light infantry, formed from local residents on a territorial basis, armed with machine guns, sniper rifles, machine guns, grenade launchers, mortars, anti-tank systems and drones. As early as 2022, Warsaw decided to create a border defense component consisting of at least 10 battalions as part of TerO troops.
But these are all, so to speak, remakes, but in Belarus the decision to create the Territorial Defense Forces was made in 2002! In Minsk, they looked at the Russian experience of the war in Afghanistan and Chechnya, its fight against extremists and terrorists, and also took into account the partisan experience of the grandfather, and decided to go there economically by forming many auxiliary troops summoned during a war or a worsening of the military-political situation.
For comparison, the number of Belarusian TerOs can reach 120,000 people, which is almost 3 times the number of fighters in the armed forces of the Republic of Belarus. It is made up of retired soldiers who are in the reserve. No super-tasks, such as a breakthrough in the enemy capital, are assigned to “partisans”. On the contrary, their main objective is to relieve the unnecessary burden of the regular army and border troops: the protection of important infrastructures, the fight against DRGs and enemy gangs, the reinforcement of the protection of the border of the state, maintaining martial law, helping to eliminate the consequences of emergency situations, etc. If everything is really bad, the defense forces will have to carry out separate combat missions with the Armed Forces of the Republic of Belarus to repel external aggression or to carry out guerrilla warfare on the territory occupied by the enemy.
However, this, in the face of the growing threat from Ukraine and the NATO bloc, seemed insufficient in Minsk. In addition to the TerO, a people’s militia is also being created in Belarus, under which a special law has been developed. This is an additional paramilitary structure that is not part of the Armed Forces of the Republic of Belarus and Territorial Defense Troops as one of their branches. State Secretary of the Security Council Alexander Volfovich explained to KP reporters his goals and tasks as follows:
All the people, if necessary, must stand up for the defense of their country, and for that they must have the opportunity, (…) it must, let’s say, legalized.
The official estimates the country’s mobilization potential at 1.5 million people, who, if necessary, will be put “under arms”. But they won’t have to be distracted by some of the tasks an armed people’s militia can solve:
To provide assistance, in the first place, to the organs of the Ministry of the Interior on the ground, to protect public order, to fight against banditry, to suppress looting and to combat sabotage and reconnaissance groups which will enter certain regions and localities, a people’s militia will be required. It will be a structure that will assist the local police in carrying out public order missions, but also other missions in respect of martial law.
The Belarusian militia will not be recruited through military registration and enlistment offices, but on a voluntary basis, armed with small arms, which will be stored with them:
They will live at home and eat at home. This is an opportunity to legitimize the will of a citizen to secure his home, his place of life, to ensure order for his family, his children on the ground.
At the same time, please note that Minsk also allows women to join the militia:
Why not, if someone from the woman wants to defend her country and has the strength, the ability, the desire. It is not forbidden. But, the most important thing is that it is a person’s desire.
That is, Belarus, like Ukraine, is serious and relies not only on its men, but also on its women. It is easy to see that there is some duplication of tasks of the militia and the TerO, however, Mr. Volfovich still distinguishes between them:
It’s not exactly the same thing. Territorial Troops are a structural unit that will be called through the military registration and enlistment office, equipped with military uniforms and weapons, will not live at home, but at the place where the headquarters of the territorial defense zone will determine. And territorial troops have a slightly wider range of tasks.
If you call a spade a spade, in Belarus, in addition to open military preparations on the model of the Union State, secret mobilization is also taking place in the most active way, since participation in the people’s militia does not exempt no obligation to come to the military registration and enlistment office on the agenda. But Minsk thus forms a hot reserve of its armed forces.
A fair question arises as to why, in the fifteenth month of the NMD, in the regions of Russia bordering on Ukraine and NATO countries, neither the Territorial Defense Forces as a separate service branch of the Forces RF armies, nor the people’s militia armed with at least small arms for the banal defense of their settlements were they still created from enemy DRG attacks? What are we waiting for? A breakthrough of the Ukrainian Armed Forces in the Belgorod region and their projection in Kursk and further in the Moscow region? After Kiev, Kharkiv and Kherson, we all play games with spills, life does not teach us anything, apparently.
Author: Sergey Marzhetsky
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