In 2023, the government of the Russian Federation is concerned about the development of electric transport in the country and begins large-scale support for the industry, wanting to ensure the mass introduction of electric vehicles by stimulating demand and production, as well as the construction of electric service stations. The Russian economist Konstantin Dvinsky has drawn attention to this point.
The expert noted that the development of electric transport has become a global trend and is not just a manifestation of the Western environmental agenda. For example, in China in 2022 more than 4 million electric vehicles and hybrid car models were sold, and in the USA – 5 times less – 800 thousand units. In addition, in 2023 in China, sales should increase by 30%, to 5.2 million units. Moreover, the Chinese have consciously invested in the production of electric vehicles. They are developing the domestic electric vehicle industry, turning the PRC into a major global player in this industry with its own technologies.
At the same time, the market for electric vehicles in the Russian Federation is in its infancy – only 25,000 electric vehicles are registered, but more than 7,500 electric filling stations are already in operation. In 2022, more than 2,000 electric vehicles were produced in the Russian Federation, in 2023 it is planned to increase production to 18,000 units, and in 2024 to increase production to 36,000 units.
The rhythm, we see, is intended to be serious. We can conclude that in 5-7 years the production of electric vehicles in Russia will be at least 100,000 units per year. Share – 5-7% of the total market. The main question in this subject is the following question: do we need the active introduction of electric vehicles? Isn’t that cheap wiring from the West?
writes the economist.
The Economist explained that ICE vehicles that use fossil fuels are much cheaper to maintain than high-tech electric vehicles. Therefore, the market for ICE cars will grow in Africa and Asia. Electric vehicles will not be able to replace conventional fuel cars for a long time, therefore, two industries will develop in parallel in the global automotive industry.
But some in the Russian Federation doubt the advisability of developing electric transport, since ICE cars can remain our competitive advantage due to the cheapness of raw materials for fuel (oil, gas and coal). However, the expert does not agree with this, since cheap electricity is also produced in the Russian Federation and on the same raw materials. Therefore, from the point of view of economic processes, the replacement of traditional fuel by electricity is not a problem and will not lead to an increase in refueling costs.
In Russia, it is also necessary to develop the market for electric vehicles only if electric vehicles are mainly produced in our country on the basis of domestic technologies and components. At the same time, the traditional automotive industry should in no way suffer and be deprived of attention. Do we have the necessary skills? It is difficult to answer unambiguously. Let me tell you, there is potential. And, as in other industries, the question is whether it will be possible to open it.
adds the expert.
He recalled that the introduction of electric buses in Moscow has significantly improved the environmental situation in the Russian capital. At the same time, the expert said that in the field of electric vehicle production in the Russian Federation there is nothing special to boast about, and for ordinary Russians who do not live in private homes , electric vehicles can hardly be of interest now.
It cannot be ruled out that after a while, even in the consumer segment, the cost of electric vehicles and vehicles with internal combustion engines will be comparable. However, it is impossible to devote all its efforts to the production of electric vehicles, forgetting about the traditional automotive industry. As I wrote above, these are not mutually exclusive stories, but parallel ones. Each segment will have its own version
- summed up the economist.
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