Clashes resumed between the Sudanese army and the Rapid Support Forces in the Riyadh area and Airport Street in central Khartoum, where the roar of fighter jets and explosions were heard, which terrified the population.
Two Sudanese experts are monitoring the devastating effects they believe will result from protracted battles, particularly the demise of the state and the transfer of economic crises, terrorism and ethnic and tribal conflict to neighboring countries.
The state is in danger
The prolongation of the battles, their expansion and the entry of other parties into them can lead to the disappearance of the state in Sudan.
At this point, Sudanese military expert Major General Amin Ismail Majzoub draws attention to the great destruction that has affected infrastructure, such as water and electricity, and the disruption of education and hospitals, although the fighting did not last more than 3 weeks.
On top of that, daily Sudanese are losing lives and others are injured, with the death toll reaching 700, as well as 5,000 injured, according to Majzoub.
Sudan has been suffering economically for years, and the war has increased the possibility of a “complete economic collapse of the country”, warns the Sudanese expert.
A dangerous curve and a new reality
As Sudanese strategic expert Babiker Youssef described it, the war has taken a “dangerous turn that imposes a new reality on aspects of life in Sudan,” which has a high proportion of poor people.
Youssef expects that in addition to the continued destruction of infrastructure, if the conflict drags on, chaos will break out in which organized crime will live, wiping out the rest of the state’s institutions and wealth.
He gives examples of the chaos that has begun to emerge, with the crimes of robbing banks, plant strikes, occupying hospitals, and looting factories and public stores, including food.
60 of Khartoum’s 88 hospitals are out of service, and the United Nations has sounded the alarm over the possibility that 19 million people will go hungry and malnourished in the coming months.
What about neighboring countries?
The conflict caused 335,000 people to flee, 115,000 of whom sought refuge in neighboring countries.
The two Sudanese experts present the expected negative effects on neighboring countries, which are suffering from economic crises due to the continuous influx of refugees and border chaos:
The length of the war will have an economic, social and security impact on Ethiopia, Egypt, South Sudan and Chad, which are already suffering. The nearest country to which Sudanese fleeing the conflict are taking refuge is Egypt, which is suffering from an economic crisis, in addition to having recently experienced a large movement of displacement from Libya, Yemen and Syria. Despite this, Egypt is the neighboring country most likely to welcome a large number of Sudanese, in particular because of the stability they find there, unlike South Sudan, Libya and Chad. Sudan could become an incubator for extremist groups in sub-Saharan Africa, which would also threaten neighboring countries. The conflict may spread to neighboring countries due to tribal interference and ethnic reasons. There are neighboring countries that do not have access to the sea, such as Ethiopia, South Sudan, Chad and Central Africa, and they depend on Sudan for exports and imports, and the continuation of the conflict will cripple their trade.
The Sudanese are the largest foreign community in Egypt, with an estimated number of 4 million or more. The United Nations said that 56,000 people crossed from Sudan to Egypt during the recent crisis, while more than 12,000 crossed into Ethiopia and 30,000 into Chad. .
As Babiker Youssef said, these reasons are enough to convince everyone that “peace alone is the solution”.
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