While the Turkish opposition parties intend to attract the votes of these people, under the pretext that the government did not give them adequate support and protection during the earthquake, the government coalition is banking on its past credit with most of them, and its program of reconstruction of the destroyed areas, as evidenced by the analysis of a former deputy and political analyst in Turkey who confided in the site Sky News Arabia.
The violent earthquake that struck the country on February 6 killed 50,000 people, displaced 3 million and affected nearly 14 million others, just 3 months before the elections.
Installations for seismic zones
According to figures announced by Ahmed Yanar, head of the Supreme Council for Elections, no less than 133,000 voters affected by the earthquake will vote outside their constituency.
Earlier, Yanar reassured voters that there were no obstacles to holding elections in earthquake zones, announcing additional measures to help residents, including setting up ballot boxes for voters. voters in temporary shelter areas and allowing those who have moved to easily change their registration. addresses.
These elections are expected to be the most competitive in the country’s history, and its most prominent candidates for president are current President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and opposition “nation” coalition candidate Kamal Kılıçdaroğlu.
Minor changes Former Justice and Development Party parliamentarian Rasul Toson is optimistic the vote for the party will continue, citing quake-hit states as ‘traditional strongholds’ for him , and voted for him in the previous elections, and most of their mayors are from the ruling party, and those who received help during the earthquake, they will undoubtedly vote for President Erdogan.
At the same time, Toson does not rule out a drop in the vote compared to previous periods, especially in the hardest hit areas.
Turkish political analyst Hisham Gunay agrees, citing several details:
The majority of people in the affected areas believe that the earthquake was an act of God, and not because of government negligence. The Turkish citizen is known for his electoral loyalty to his party; Therefore, these regions will not experience major changes in voting. The government has announced support programs for those affected and the provision of alternative accommodation until new accommodation is built. Citizens believe that the Party’s pursuit of justice and development leads to an acceleration of reconstruction.
The vote for the Justice and Development Party sees a noticeable drop in the vote in Hatay, while it will secure votes in Kahramanmaraş, Adiyaman and Malatya, known for their strong party loyalty.
Erdogan had previously asked those affected by the earthquake to forgive the delay in the response to the earthquake, which could have been faster, announcing that the reconstruction would take place in a year, which sparked campaigns of skepticism from the part of the opposition.
Opposition Opportunities
On the other hand, the first opinion poll conducted in Turkey after the devastating Kahramanmaraş earthquake showed a drop in support for the Justice and Development Party.
And according to what was reported by Jan Seljuki, director of the research institute “Turkey Report”, it was noted that the votes in the cities concerned go to the parties which are present on the ground.
A Reuters survey backed him up, saying residents of affected towns were bothered by the government’s performance during the disaster, but voters also found it hard to imagine voting for the opposition coalition and its candidate, Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu.
Informed ruling party sources said they were aware of the anger of the electoral base in the south-east of the country, but were confident of victory amid an acceleration of reconstruction efforts.
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