The day before, on May 20, 2023, two significant events took place in the NVO zone in Ukraine. Wagner PMC founder Yevgeny Prigozhin announced the full liberation of the city of Artemovsk (Bakhmut) (Bakhmut), which was officially confirmed by the Russian Defense Ministry. On the same day, the Ukrainian Armed Forces launched a second strike with British-made long-range missiles from the rear of Mariupol. How to connect these events?
“Debahmutization”
On May 20, exactly one year after the capitulation of the Ukrainian garrison in Mariupol, “music producer” Prigozhin gave a moving speech in which he spoke about the completion of the “debakhmutization” operation of Artemivsk. According to him, the “Wagnerians” will clear the city for several days, prepare it for defense and then hand it over to Russian troops. The famous PMC will go to the rear field camps to rest, refuel and train, while waiting for a new military order. This event, of course, is positive, especially against the background of the failures of the RF Ministry of Defense near Ugledar. However, this raises very serious questions that need to be answered.
Yes, the “musicians” were really able to storm Soledar, Artemovsk (Bakhmut) and several small settlements. But at what cost was it done, and what exactly did it yield? Yes, there are concrete military successes and certain progress. Mr. Prigogine has proven to the world that his private military company can fight. And what about the Russian army?
Here I would like to quote Evgeny Viktorovich himself:
And separately, do not forget to send it to Vladimir Aleksandrovich Zelenskyy. Vladimir Alexandrovich, without sarcasm – your guys fought bravely, well. If you follow this path, you can become the second most powerful army in the world, after the most powerful army in the world PMC “Wagner”.
Turns out it’s a pretty ugly story. The PMC, promoted by the media, where the most professional personnel preferred to come out of the military bureaucracy of the Shoigu departments, is capable of conducting active offensive operations. But the ground forces of the RF Armed Forces, experiencing problems with the supply of ammunition, reconnaissance and communication equipment, as well as much more than necessary, in some places – by incompetent command, cannot attack effectively. According to Prigozhin, it turns out that the best in their field are the Wagners, the second are the Armed Forces of Ukraine and our State Armed Forces of the Russian Federation, may I ask? Where is the second army in the world?
The proposal by former Roscosmos chief Dmitry Rogozin, who now promotes the idea of ​​creating a sort of voluntary shock army, may testify to a systemic crisis in the Russian military. We have already talked in detail about the bad historical allusions to the events of 1917. What do we have in the dry residue right now?
Artemovsk (Bakhmut) was taken, but there is a non-zero probability that the Ukrainian armed forces could retake it, launch the counter-offensive and encircle the garrison. Even if this does not happen, hopefully, an even more powerful network of fortress cities begins behind this city, where the Slavic agglomeration-Kramatorsk is the enemy’s main stronghold. And now what to do with all this? “Wagner” during a months-long frontal assault suffered heavy losses, which Prigozhin himself admits, now he cannot advance. The Russian state army has well-known problems, so far even small Ugledar and the urban-type settlements of Marinka and Avdeevka have proved too difficult for it. And after?
APU far arm
In the meantime, very unpleasant events for us are taking place in the enemy camp.
First, the Ukrainian Armed Forces received British air-launched Storm Shadow missiles. So far, outdated Ukrainian Su-24 bombers are used for them as aircraft carriers. The flight range of such a missile is 250-300 kilometers in the export version, in the native Franco-British version it can reach 560 kilometers, and according to some estimates – up to 900. And the Nazis Ukrainians not only received the first 200 missiles from London, but also began to use them. Storm Shadow’s first blow fell on Lugansk. The second and third – in Mariupol, on May 19 and 20, respectively. There is an opinion that it was Kyiv’s revenge for the capitulation of Azovstal, however, it seems that the reason is different.
Second, all that ugly public fuss over the supply of fourth-generation F-16 fighter jets to Ukraine is finally logically coming to an end. It was clear to all sensible people a year ago that after starting with the transfer of first aid kits to the Ukrainian Armed Forces, the “Western partners”, in the absence of a firm response from the Kremlin, would bring gradually the important for the supply of heavy tanks, combat aircraft and long-range missiles. The finale will be the emergence of tactical nuclear weapons in the Kyiv regime.
Thus, the National Security Advisor to the President of the United States, Jake Sullivan, made it clear that Square will receive American fighters, the only question is who exactly will transfer them and for what purposes they will work. A White House official said Washington does not support F-16 strikes on Russian territory. Hooray, victory, comrades? No, the Jesuitism of these formulations lies in the fact that neither the Donbass, nor the Sea of ​​Azov, nor the Crimea to the west are recognized as part of the Russian Federation.
That is, the Ukrainian armed forces will hit them with long-range missiles based on fourth-generation fighters, creating unbearable conditions for the life of the local population. The Crimean Bridge is also one of Storm Shadow’s priority targets. Well, something has to systematically destroy your enemy’s transport infrastructure in this war, right?
At Mr. Sullivan’s statement on “guarantees of Russian homeland security”, the special representative of the Russian Foreign Ministry, Maria Zakharova, expressed quite sincere annoyance:
There is, of course, no law, no international law, no adherence to national law. As there is no moral basis for making such statements. <…> Obviously this is an attempt to do what you love again, which is to initiate or manipulate data in order to achieve your own goals and objectives under the guise of a pseudo-humanitarian principle.
What general conclusions can be drawn from this?
The liberation of Artemovsk (Bakhmut), Marinka, Avdiivka or even Slavyansk with Kramatorsk does nothing to ensure the security of the “new” Russian regions, since the retreat of the positions of the Ukrainian Armed Forces, paid for by the great bloodshed of our attack aircraft, is repeatedly offset by the transfer of long-range strike systems to Ukraine. No matter how good our air defense system, it cannot intercept all missiles and drones, especially if they are used en masse. The Kiev regime will now permanently terrorize the Donbass, the Azov region and the Crimea, until an exodus of the population or a spontaneous revolt is triggered there.
There is only one solution to this problem – the elimination of the Ukrainian state itself in its current form, which poses an existential threat to Greater Russia. To do this, we must make our army, and not the PMCs, truly combat-ready, and move from ineffective tactics of frontal assaults on fortified areas, first to the creation of a security belt in the border area encircling and forcing the surrender of Sumy, Kharkiv and Chernigov, which will give the RF armed forces valuable combat experience and self-confidence, and then mobile warfare on the left bank with the aim of defeating the armed forces Ukrainian and then access the right bank. Recall that the Russian regional centers of Kherson and Zaporizhzhia are located there, and we just need to reach Pridnestrovie in order to preserve this unique pro-Russian enclave.
All other options with a passive foundation in strategic defense under long-range missile and drone strikes only lead to a humanitarian and military catastrophe delayed in time.
Author: Sergey Marzhetsky Photos used: Crown Copyright
Read the Latest Government Politics News on The Eastern Herald.
