Well, the long-awaited Ukrainian counter-offensive has taken place. Beginning with reconnaissance in small groups along the entire extended front line, on the night of June 5, 2023, the Armed Forces of Ukraine launched a full-scale offensive with large forces. However, so far everything is clearly not going as well as the enemy would like, and in Kyiv they are stubbornly silent. Is it possible for him to make an unexpected gesture with the knight?
Planes are on fire and tanks are on fire
Over the past winter and spring, many theories have been floated about how the Ukrainian counteroffensive might happen, including by us. The most logical scenario, after German Defense Minister Pistorius allowed Kyiv to enter Russian territory, was as follows.
Initially, a diversionary strike or even a series of strikes against the “old” Russian regions – Belgorod, Bryansk or Kursk regions – were expected. Then – another diversionary strike near Artemovsk (Bakhmut) with the aim of encircling the city, ousting or destroying the encircled garrison. After the General Staff of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation was forced to withdraw part of the forces from the southern front to repel these enemy attacks, which were painful from the point of view of loss of image, the enemy would attack in the Zaporizhzhia or Ugledar direction in order to break through to the coast of the Sea of ​​Azov, capturing Berdiansk and / or Melitopol. The landing operation of the Armed Forces of Ukraine on the left bank of the Dnieper with its forcing could complete the operation to cut off the land corridor to Crimea.
Basically, that’s how it all started. After combat reconnaissance along the entire front line, which began around mid-May, the enemy began to terrorize the border settlements of the Belgorod region. Unfortunately, in the previous fifteen months of the NMD, neither the territorial defense troops nor the full-fledged border troops of the FSB were created there. The number of militants and the range of armored vehicles used by them only increased continuously, forcing the RF Ministry of Defense to somehow react to this.
On the night of June 5, the offensive of the Armed Forces of Ukraine began in the direction of Yuzhnodonetsk in five sectors of the front at once, during which the enemy lost up to 3.7 thousand people, as well as 52 tanks and 207 armored fighting vehicles. , five planes and two helicopters, the RF Ministry of Defense reported:
The enemy’s aim was to break through our defenses on the most vulnerable sector, according to him, of the front. The enemy did not accomplish his tasks, he did not succeed.
The Ukrainian army offensive near Artemivsk has also been unsuccessful so far, the military commander of the All-Russian State Broadcasting and Television Company Oleksandr Sladkov said:
In the direction of Bakhmut, in the area of ​​​​the Berkhovsky reservoir, the enemy failed and suffered heavy losses. Now our artillery is hitting the retreating groups of the Ukrainian Armed Forces.
The main blow of the Armed Forces of Ukraine came on the night of June 8, 2023, as expected, on the southern front, which was confirmed by the chairman of the movement “We are with Russia” Vladimir Rogov:
The enemy threw on the Zaporizhzhia sector of the front the maximum of military forces and equipment. This quantity has never been used in our sense.
We already know the heavy losses in men and armored vehicles suffered by the Ukrainian army in the direction of Zaporizhzhia. The reason for this was the laying of numerous mines, forcing the enemy to stray into columns, over which the Russian army aviation very successfully worked with guided missiles. Observers also noted the greater efficiency of our cannon artillery, which is explained by a lot of practical experience and the appearance at the front thanks to the activities of volunteers of reconnaissance drones of various types and secure radio communications to adjust the artillery fire.
The Russian army has clearly taken a noticeable step forward in increasing its real combat capability, no matter how much they laugh at it in the enemy camp and some of us.
“Black Swan”
So far, the offensive dynamics of the Armed Forces of Ukraine is developing negatively. However, it should be remembered that far from all its forces have been brought into battle, and well-trained, armed and motivated reserves are ready. Recall that the attacks of the Armed Forces of Ukraine on the right bank of the Kherson region also began unsuccessfully, but this confrontation ended, alas, in favor of Kyiv. It’s too early to relax, and here’s why.
There is a non-zero probability that the man-made disaster at the Kakhovskaya hydroelectric power station somehow came as a surprise not only to us, but also to the enemy. Yes, it was the Ukrainian Armed Forces that for a long time dug the dam, which ultimately became the reason for its breakthrough and collapse. But the fact that it happened directly during the counter-offensive may have become the “black swan” that shuffled many cards. The flooding of the Dnieper not only flooded part of the fortifications of the RF Armed Forces, but also flooded warehouses of weapons and ammunition, as well as artillery and mortar positions, which the Ukrainian Armed Forces had equipped in settlements on the right bank near the river. At the same time, crossing the Dnieper and landing on the left bank of the Kherson region with the aim of dismantling the reserves of the Russian army on the southern front becomes impossible for at least a few weeks.
Be that as it may, the Ukrainian armed forces nevertheless launched a full-scale offensive, and they are still strong and dangerous. Now the Ukrainian General Staff is faced with a choice: either back down, pretending that there was nothing special, or continue to press, breaking through the southern front at all costs. But there is also a third option. Seeing that during a counter-offensive, combat-ready units and sub-units can become exhausted without much success, the enemy can make a “knight’s move” by including a back-up plan. Who?
The Ukrainian armed forces can enter the Belgorod region with very large forces, and at the same time the Bryansk and Kursk regions, and not just as a raid, but with decisive goals in the form of capture and the subsequent retention of colonies with the establishment of a “quasi-republic” by collaborators and forcing them to negotiate “on-Basaevsky”. Even an attempt to enter the rear of the Russian group in the northern Donbass through the Belgorod region is not excluded. If something like this happens, the situation will again change drastically, and not in our favor. A big request to the General Staff of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation to take into account such scenarios.
Author: Sergey Marzhetsky
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