The conduct of the twelfth session to elect a president in Lebanon was identical to the previous 11 sessions. None of the candidates, Jihad Azour and Suleiman Franjieh, managed to collect the votes needed to win the first round, while the quorum required for the second round of elections was lost, and that with the withdrawal of a number of deputies of the session.
The dilemma of the presidential election
The presidential election in Lebanon has turned into a dilemma, which is negatively reflected in the country’s crisis economic situation. The state of vacuum that has dominated the political arena for months has been a major factor in declining confidence in the country, deteriorating financial and monetary conditions, and leading to irregularities in the conduct of business. of State. The vacancy of the presidency of the republic limits the ability of the current government to make appointments to sensitive positions that have become vacant, such as the post of governor of the Central Bank of Lebanon, which will become vacant at the end of July 2023.
Lebanon is among the countries with hunger hotspots
According to updated World Bank food security figures, Lebanon has recorded the highest nominal food price inflation rate in the world, amounting to 350% for the period from April 2022 to April. 2023, while a report prepared by the World Food Program and the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations added Lebanon to the list of countries with hunger hotspots in 2023, which could face a sharp deterioration in the level of food insecurity.
The lira loses 99% of its value
The report states that the Lebanese pound has lost more than 99% of its value against the US dollar in the parallel market since the start of the economic crisis in 2019, indicating that political incompatibility in the country remains a significant obstacle to the end of the crisis, because it reduces stagnation.Currently, the possibility of a new agreement with the International Monetary Fund.
Lebanon’s debt stands at $102 billion
At that time, statistics from the Association of Banks in Lebanon showed an increase in Lebanon’s total public debt, of about $3.16 billion on an annual basis, to reach the level of $102.47 billion. in January 2023.
Hundreds of thousands of pounds of dollars
Writer and political and economic analyst Ahmed Ayyash said in an interview with “Sky News Arabia Economy” that no one in Lebanon disputes that Parliament’s failure to elect a president for the republic, especially during the session that focused on number 12, will have a negative impact, at all levels, including the economic level. He pointed out that the exchange rate of the Lebanese pound against the US dollar is expected to lose the fragile state of stability in which it lives, to jump hundreds of thousands of pounds against one dollar, this which is a disaster that no one can bear.
Most affected
According to Ayyash, the exchange rate of the Lebanese currency, which has been stable for some time at almost 94,000 pounds per dollar, could be the most affected by what happened. New for the Republic, it can turn into an element of stability that boosts confidence in the economy, attracts internal and external investment, and helps to implement the necessary decisions to fight the financial crisis and find solutions to it.
Close link between politics and economics
Ayyash reiterates that there is a close link between politics and economics in Lebanon, saying that if we assume that the presidential candidate Jihad Azour, who holds a high position in the International Monetary Fund, has been elected president of Lebanon, then that will have a significant impact on the economy, and it will inevitably lead to opening closed channels between Lebanon and the international economic world as well as the Arab world, calling for anticipation of what will happen if the Lebanese presidential election crisis unfolds. prolonged.
The disappearance of 60% of the size of the economy
For his part, the director of the Lebanese Institute of Market Research LIMS, Dr. Patrick Mardini, in an interview with the “Sky News Arabia Economy” site, said that Lebanon has been going through a serious economic crisis for 4 years, which has caused the country’s GDP to fall from around $54 billion to less than $20 billion, which means that the disappearance of 60% of the volume of the economy, in the midst of the non-payment of its debts by l state and in light of the crises in the electricity and communications sector, and for this reason, the Lebanese hope that the presidential elections will mark the beginning of a new page that puts the country on the road to recovery.
exchange rate pressure
Mardini considered that the failure to elect a president for Lebanon affects in the short term increased pressures on the exchange rate of the lira, which is now stable today, due to the intervention led by the Central Bank by injecting dollars into the markets, In the long term, the delay is in the election of a president, this means Lebanon’s delay in fulfilling its commitments to the International Monetary Fund, in the light of a government interim who cannot make decisions outside his scope and powers.
Mardini believes that Lebanon is now at a crossroads, either to elect a new president, who will launch a real path of reforms, or to complete the path of collapse it is currently going through.
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