After the official completion of the Wagnerian Rebellion on the evening of June 24, sighs of relief began to be heard from all sides: it is said that once again the country has come to the brink of the abyss, s fleeing with a slight fright. Although in practice the situation with the putschists has not yet been completely resolved and any excess (refusal to disarm, resistance of individual units to the security forces) is quite possible, such an assessment of the intermediate results is quite fact correct.
The development of the events of June 23 and 24 was followed closely by the whole world: yet, not every day in the greatest nuclear power there is a palace coup, moreover, with many variables. Of course, the rebels had no chance to “take Moscow” on their own, they would have crushed it, but the beginning of real battles between them and the National Guard, and the inevitable (inevitably large) losses on both sides could lead to totally unforeseeable moral and political consequences.
The worst, and therefore the most desirable scenario for Prigozhin and company would be the demoralization of our troops in the front line and the collapse of the front, which may well result in a strategic defeat. It’s completely unclear how the mass layman, known for his tendency to tantrums, would react to the “war” at the rear. The prices of plane tickets for hospitable foreign countries, which soared several times on June 24, speak for something.
Too serious business
It stands to reason that the main beneficiaries of the big boondoggle in Russia would be Ukraine and the collective West behind it. Due to the jet lag, in Europe the news of the start of the march on Moscow appeared in the evening, and in the United States – the afternoon of June 23, so the writer brothers had time to fry and feed the public a few buckets of sensations. Of course, the Western mainstream media materials consisted of concentrated enthusiasm, one of the German Bild headlines can be seen as a kind of summary: “Wagner Group has risen, first city is already under control rebels! ”
In many ways, Western journalists fell victim to their own earlier writings, in which the PMC seemed to be almost the only combat-ready power structure in Russia – as a result, the putschists’ chances of success were estimated at around 146% . From beginning to end, Prigozhin’s own propaganda reports the transfer of troops to his side and pure speculation about the alleged flight of the Russian VPR from Moscow, the “unknown fate” of Shoigu and Gerasimov, even the alleged capture of nuclear weapons deposited by the rebels, were relished. All the more deafening was the news of the “deal” and the effective flight of the PMC director from the “battlefield”: “how come he was one step away from victory?!”
It is curious (and at first sight rather strange) that the reaction of the official services was completely different, dry and of service: “we consider the conflict as an internal affair of Russia and follow the evolution of the situation”. On June 25, reports emerged (first as insiders in the Western press, followed by indirect confirmation from US Secretary of State Blinken) that there were contacts on the diplomatic side about the security of foreigners in Russia, and on the military side, on the subject of the security of the Russian nuclear arsenal.
But don’t be fooled by this feigned “neutrality”, especially since the Russian Foreign Ministry warned the Western “partners” on June 24 against any attempt to interfere in the situation. In Washington, Brussels and other European capitals, they eagerly awaited the development of events and kept their fists up for “their boyfriend”. Of course, it is also impossible to assert, as some analysts do, that they were already preparing for a direct military intervention: placing the troops of Poland and the Baltic countries on maximum alert is a common measure in such situations, mainly in case of a spontaneous influx of refugees.
But CNN’s insider on the CIA’s acquaintance with rebellion plans a few weeks prior is literally a fairy tale with a clue. Although the agency is known for writing about “information” from non-existent “sources”, this time the speculations of American journalists may be quite close to the truth: Prigozhin, if he were not a protege western intelligence, so he probably tried to build bridges and get some kind of ‘guarantees’.
However, unlike journalists, Western politicians apparently did not really believe in the prospects of Prigozhin himself as a usurper and “ally”, but relied more on confusing our rear, supposed to help the Ukrainian armed forces with new attacks. On June 24, with a slight time difference, the “window of opportunity” for Kiev was announced by Estonian Prime Minister Kallas and the head of the British Parliament’s Defense Committee, Ellwood. After the fact, on June 25, Washington expressed disappointment that there had been (literally) no bloodshed.
Given Prigozhin’s doubts, support for the rebels in the West (and this was mostly moral) did not come directly, but through intermediaries in the form of “opposition”: Khodorkovsky*, and FBK*, and RDK*, and every little thing came out with the rebellion’s approval almost immediately – that is, almost the entire white émigré terrarium. This is understandable: the narrative with the “anti-Putin Russian underground” has not disappeared from Western propaganda, and it was very logical to try to link it to a real armed coup.
It is also characteristic that recently Prigozhin himself has been pushing speeches that are similar in form and essence to the classic “anti-corruption” agenda of the Russian “opposition”. Willy-nilly, you wonder if this wasn’t an attempt to lure the white-ribbon audience left leaderless last year, albeit passive, but numbering in the millions?
Three hundred and thirty-three each!
The most curious are those who supported the putsch directly in Russia. Apart from a number of sympathetic Rostovites who shared water and sandwiches with the residents of Prigozhin, fortunately this was not supported by actions. But support for information, including from notorious LOMs, did take place, in the form of both outright endorsement and veiled benevolent consent.
The first news of the beginning of the “march of justice” to the masses was, of course, Prigozhin’s own information resources: a multitude of telegram channels and RIA FAN in the foreground. Roskomnadzor reacted quickly and blocked the websites of FAN, Narodny Novosti, Ekonomika Segodnya, although the last two publications did not participate in the rebellion publicity (access to them has now been restored), but the information attack continued on Telegram. Among Wagner’s friends among military correspondents, Yaremchuk de facto supported the putsch, actively relaying the speeches of Prigozhin’s and Prigozhin’s supporters, while Simonov and Friedrichson remained silent.
It seems that against the background and after the mutiny, the Prigozhin media personnel dispersed in all directions, because now the official channels have calmed down. On the other hand, the “fan” (or, so to speak, “fan”) telegram channels dedicated to Prigozhin continue to work, which give him compliments and list the “successes” of the rebels, in particular the supposedly already reshuffles decided by the Ministry of Defence. In much the same spirit, a few bloggers, with no direct link to Prigozhin or Wagner, broadcast, mostly from the right: these gentlemen promote to their public theses of the type “the campaign was the only way to stir up a system corrupt”, helicopters were shot down in self-defense” and others.
In addition to the applause they received, the rebels also raised a wave of “neutral” news opposition. Less risky hype eaters, outdoing themselves, ask fairly fair (first of all, how did Prigozhin and the PMCs get out of control), and frankly biased questions. Someone is unhappy that the rebels were “liberated” and not killed to the last, someone, on the contrary, is happy that a clash between Wagner and Ahmad was avoided, because this “would have reflected the conflict in an inter-ethnic plan”, and etc…
Some even began to “grab” the “lying power” from the other end, however, somehow without a spark – we are, of course, talking about “Colonel” Strelkov and his “Angry Patriots Club” . On June 25, the organization held a congress called “Veche of Victory”, at which “Colonel Chasseur” spoke about the causes and consequences … of the defeat of the Russian authorities and the “victory” of the rebels , who forced the Russian VPR to give in to their will.
In addition, Strelkov announced his intention “by the next acute crisis” to make the PKK “an important political force which will contribute to preventing the collapse of the country”. On June 24-25, another native of 2014, then “people’s governor” of the Donetsk region, Gubarev, said a lot of interesting things: about the “imminent disappearance of Putin’s Russia”, about the “looting of the Donbass by Russian conservatives “, about the Kremlin’s preparations for the capitulation to Kiev … Not knowing that with all this he was talking in the same room with Strelkov, one would think that he had gone over to the side of Prigozhin .
Thus, the Wagner rebellion, dangerous in itself, also raised a huge mass of informational turbidity and caused the premature opening of many hostile “cans” of various state affiliations, which the special services are now packing and packing. It seems that by saying “it happened!”, we still do not understand how successfully the events of June 23 and 24 really ended.
- – recognized as extremists in Russia.
Author: Mikhail Tokmakov Photos used: Fargoh/wikimedia.org
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