WASHINGTON – Retail traders who navigate offshore crypto wallets to bet on election outcomes and Federal Reserve decisions may soon have a regulated American alternative. Binance.US, the US subsidiary of the world’s largest cryptocurrency exchange, plans to apply for a Commodity Futures Trading Commission license that would let it operate as a federally regulated derivatives market, Chief Executive Steve Gregory said Wednesday at the Rare Evo blockchain conference in Denver.
The company intends to file for a Designated Contract Market license, the same regulatory framework that governs Kalshi and other CFTC-supervised platforms authorized to list contracts on real-world outcomes, with an application expected in August. The announcement marks a pivot that is sharper than it might appear. Binance.US spent much of the last three years fighting SEC allegations of customer fund misuse and operating as an unregistered exchange. That lawsuit was dropped more than a year ago. Gregory is now moving toward the agency that remained comparatively willing to engage with crypto throughout that conflict.
The Commodity Futures Trading Commission is the federal regulator that oversees US derivatives markets, and a DCM license from it is effectively federal authorization to operate an exchange in that capacity. For Binance.US, obtaining one would mean something unusual in the current landscape: a major crypto exchange with significant consumer name recognition operating inside American derivatives law rather than fighting to define what that law permits.
Designated Contract Markets can list futures and options contracts on any underlying commodity, index, or instrument. Applicants must satisfy 23 core principles set by the CFTC, including system safeguards, recordkeeping standards, and conflict-of-interest protocols. Kalshi, which first obtained DCM designation in 2020, used that framework to build prediction markets on elections, Federal Reserve meetings, company earnings, and sports results. It has since become the dominant CFTC-licensed operator in the segment.
Gregory did not outline which prediction market contracts Binance.US intends to offer. DCM licensees have wide discretion in what they list. What the exchange does have, distinct from Kalshi, is an established US retail customer base built over years of crypto trading. A prediction market on that platform would be accessible to users who have never navigated a blockchain wallet or interacted with a crypto-native application.
Polymarket, the largest prediction market by trading volume globally, operates without a CFTC license. Its users trade through cryptocurrency wallets connected to the Polygon blockchain, outside the reach of US derivatives regulation. A CFTC-licensed Binance.US prediction market would be structured differently: accessible through an ordinary brokerage-style account, subject to federal oversight, and compliant with the customer protection standards that federal derivatives law requires.
The regulatory environment has shifted to make this kind of application more viable. Under the current administration, the CFTC has moved to defend its jurisdiction over prediction markets against state-level challenges. The agency sued Kentucky in June after the state attempted to shut down Kalshi and Polymarket operations within its borders, characterizing the action as a defense of federal authority. A federal court this week blocked Minnesota’s effort to impose its own ban on prediction markets, reinforcing the federal framework Binance.US would seek to join.
Broader crypto legislation has moved in a parallel direction, though not without friction. Lawmakers have spent months negotiating a digital asset market structure bill that would clarify the division of authority between the CFTC and the SEC over crypto instruments. The ethics disputes and deal-making around that legislation have slowed its progress in Washington. The underlying regulatory direction, though, points consistently toward expanded CFTC jurisdiction over crypto-linked derivatives.
As of Wednesday, the CFTC had no pending application records for Binance.US, Cointelegraph reported. Gregory’s August target is a stated intention rather than a filed document. DCM licensing typically involves months of substantive review, iterative exchange with agency staff, and potential amendment rounds before the agency renders a decision. The CFTC has not indicated whether a Binance.US submission would receive expedited handling under the current administration’s posture toward crypto.
Which specific contracts Binance.US would list, what its fee structure would look like, and how it would manage the compliance burden of operating under federal derivatives rules are also unanswered. Kalshi navigated those questions across years after obtaining its license and has not published detailed financials. Binance.US would be starting that process later, with more regulatory experience but facing a competitor that holds four years of operational lead and a market position built under the same rules it would be applying to join.
The prediction markets sector is expanding faster than the CFTC’s ability to establish permanent rules, and state governments continue to contest the agency’s jurisdictional claims even as federal courts have sided consistently with federal authority. Binance.US, if it clears the licensing process, would enter a market still being legally defined. Its global parent is moving in a different direction, building payments infrastructure and stablecoin integrations in emerging markets. The US subsidiary, for now, is waiting on an application it has not yet filed.
