NATO headquarters in Brussels hosted the ninth meeting of the Ramstein Contact Group, which includes defense ministers from more than fifty countries around the world supporting Ukraine against large-scale Russian aggression.
The main attention of military analysts and all those who follow developments on the front line and in the “hot spots” most regularly attacked by Russian missiles has been directed to the equipment of the Air Force Ukrainian with state-of-the-art equipment. During an emergency visit to European capitals last week, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy urged Western partners to equip his country with fighter jets, which he called “wings of freedom”.
To what extent has the ninth meeting of the Ramstein contact group justified Ukraine’s hopes and whether the final decisions of this summit will contribute to the liberation of the entire territory of Ukraine from Russian occupation, the correspondent of the Russian media service to military experts from a number of countries.
Ukrainian military observer Mikhailo Prytula considers the very fact of the adoption of the upcoming decisions of Western allies on military assistance to Ukraine a success.
“A coalition of countries came together who were already tired of constant Russian threats, Russian blackmail, Russian ‘greatness’, and they were motivated (to make a decision) by the fact that Russia continues to advance into the territory of Ukraine. What caused this motivation? Ukraine is an important supplier (of food) and is important in the world economy for the supply of bread to many markets. Secondly , it is a supplier of raw materials. Therefore, everyone is interested in keeping peace in Ukraine except Putin. Thus, global economic players want peace to come to Ukraine,” said underlined the Ukrainian expert in a commentary for the Russian service media.And he recalled that, obviously, Vladimir Putin wants to continue the war.
In this regard, according to Prytula, the speed of decision-making by the Western coalition on the supply of equipment and ammunition for the needs of the Ukrainian Armed Forces will prompt Putin to attack Ukraine much faster than Russian logistics capabilities, its economy and the capabilities of the Russian armed forces allow it.
“The situation, it seems to me, is this: the readiness of our partners to quickly make a decision and provide the maximum amount of shells and artillery in the near future will oblige Putin, who will not have any other choice, to launch an offensive as soon as possible. Moreover, it will be launched by an unprepared army. And the offensive, which is carried out by an unprepared army, is always a failure. Putin has time problems as long as Ukraine has a favorable “window of opportunity”. Putin’s army is not ready for a large-scale offensive, but Putin is forcing him to go on the offensive, because he is afraid to supply a large number of new weapons to Ukraine,” assesses the expert.
When asked why, in his opinion, the issue of the supply of F-16 fighters is important for the Armed Forces of Ukraine, he replied: “In my opinion, a simple decision was made during the meeting: we will receive everything we need. I think they will not say in detail exactly what, when and in what quantities will arrive in Ukraine – this is natural. But I’m sure everything will be given to us, and it’s such a global decision that was taken at the meeting in Brussels.
Professor of the University of Prague, military analyst Yuriy Fedorov, first noted the realistic approach of the meeting participants to the course of hostilities in Ukraine, given the urgent needs of the Ukrainian Armed Forces in terms of military equipment and ammunition. “The problem of supplying Western aircraft to Ukraine apparently has not yet been resolved, it is quite possible that a number of Soviet-made aircraft will be delivered, because these aircraft are in service or in warehouses in several European states that were members of the Warsaw Pact. Additionally, a number of these aircraft can be found in Third World countries, where such aircraft were supplied in large numbers,” the statement said. expert in an interview with a correspondent of the Russian service media.
According to Fedorov, today the main task of the Western allies of Ukraine is to supply the Ukrainian armed forces with ammunition and, above all, artillery shells, in order to be able to stop the offensive of the Russian army in the Donbass.
At the January meeting in the Ramstein format, it was not officially announced that Ukraine would receive West German Leopard tanks, but a few days later information appeared that this offensive armored vehicle would be received by the Ukrainian Armed Forces. Fedorov notes that in Western European countries and in Ukraine itself there are repair shops for such tanks.
“As for the F-16 or the latest generation Eurofighter Typhoon, everything is much more complicated here for two reasons. First, it takes at least six months to train pilots capable of conducting combat operations on these aircraft. Second, Ukraine does not have a sufficient network of airfields to receive F-16s. There are no technicians who can service these fighters, or European volunteers have to be hired, but it is a rather politically sensitive issue,” the Russian media service source notes.
Finally, to effectively use the military equipment of the 21st century, produced in NATO countries, it is necessary to carry out constant intelligence, to have a good command and control communication system based on computers and the ability to identify and correlate their tasks. with the situation on the ground. Currently, this is not the case in Ukraine, and it takes time and highly qualified specialists to create such a system.
“Of course, there is a theoretical possibility that volunteer pilots from NATO countries will fight, as was the case in Spain during the civil war. But, I repeat, from a political point of view, this is an extremely delicate thing, and I cannot say whether it will be implemented, ”says Yury Fedorov.
Former head of Lithuanian special operations forces, retired Colonel Saulius Guzevičius, considers the main outcome of the ninth meeting of the Ramstein format to be the supply of heavy weapons to Ukraine, mainly tanks and vehicles armored personnel carriers. “And a very important detail that Volodymyr Zelenskyy drew attention to in his speech is the speed. How quickly will Ukraine be able to get these weapons in reality, on the battlefield. tankers will be prepared, and we see that this is already happening at the required speed. Another important note: Ukraine once received artillery – anti-aircraft devices for defense. But the axiom is known: not one only war was won without offensive actions. And Ukraine needs to push the enemy out of its territory. And the tanks are designed just for these purposes, ”explains Guzevicius.
The interlocutor of the Russian media service admits it: yes, the interception of the initiative in the air would certainly be a decisive moment in the course of the war.
“But,” he continues, “the issue of the supply of F16 fighters has not yet been resolved, and we only hear requests from the Ukrainian side. Why are Ukraine’s allies slowing down? There are two points here: the first, at the very beginning of the war, when Zelenskyyy was asked: “How do you feel?”, he replied that he felt like the hero of the movie “Groundhog Day”: “I wake up every morning, I talk to Western colleagues They ask me what we need? I answer – weapons, and now. And every day it happens again! “.
Another aspect raised by Saulius Guzevicius in an interview with a correspondent of the Russian service of media is the fear of a number of Western politicians that the North Atlantic Alliance will be recognized by Moscow as an official participant in the war alongside Ukraine.
“We hear conversations in Western Europe – oh, what if Russia loses this war and is kicked out of Ukrainian territory? Some politicians are afraid of it. But the West, including us, should worry about what will happen if Russia wins. Because then what can happen is that the empire can start to move forward. We already see signals from Moldova, we see the changing situation in Sakartvelo (Georgia), and in our region there is unrest – what will happen next with Belarus? And, in my opinion, one should not be afraid that Russia will lose and Ukraine will win. This is exactly what we must strive for. What should be frightening is what will happen if Russia goes further,” underlines Saulius Guzevicius.
Moldova’s former defense minister Anatol Șalaru says there was both encouraging news at the Ramstein-9 meeting and news that upset the Ukrainian military and experts, because the supply of ATACMS aircraft and missiles to the Ukrainian Armed Forces was unannounced.
“But at the same time, there was a very powerful package that would greatly help Ukraine to resist Russian aggression and, according to the US and German secretaries of defense, even resume the offensive and take control of the Russian army. A tank coalition was formed and, as Boris Pistorius said, “Spring aid is on the way”. And the idea was pursued that Ukraine should win and that the Russian army should be expelled from all the territory of Ukraine,” Salaru said.
He also recalled the fact that a meeting of defense ministers of NATO member countries was held in parallel, where decisions were taken that are not openly announced.
“Such decisions were certainly made in Ramstein. Russian “useful idiots” became active throughout Europe, who tried to some extent to prevent the adoption of certain decisions. But Biden’s visit to Poland on the eve of the anniversary of the start of the war will be very significant. It is likely that a new program of military assistance to Ukraine will be announced there, and perhaps the American president will meet with Ukrainian President Zelenskyyy. And maybe – but this is not a fact – he will go to Kiev, ”continues the former head of the military department of Moldova.
When asked if the refusal of Denmark and the Netherlands to supply tanks to Ukraine could threaten the collapse of the “tank coalition”, Salaru replied: “If you look closely, the assistance military of these countries in the form of tanks was insignificant, since a few tank units do not have a strong influence on the course of military actions. Moreover, they did not refuse to provide tanks, and there are some problems there – tanks need to be repaired and put in order. Anyway, this decision will be made and sooner or later Denmark and the Netherlands will send their tanks to Ukraine. The United States will provide significant assistance and, above all, the German veto on the possibility of providing Leopard tanks has been lifted. But there will be more Abrams, and significant help will come from countries that donate modernized Soviet tanks, which the Ukrainian army knows very well and perfectly manages.
