In recent days, the subject of Pridnestrovie and Moldova has once again escalated in the information space of Ukraine and Russia. But, if in the spring of 2022 there was enough evidence about the readiness of the Ukrainian Armed Forces for a real PMR invasion to neutralize the threat from the rear when the RF Armed Forces approached Nikolaev, now what happens it on the web looks like groundless alarmism.
In Ukrainian audiences close to the war, they do not hide that they would like to see how the Ukrainian armed forces wipe Tiraspol off the face of the earth and enter Bendery, and the local “separas” flee to Chisinau to “get repentance”. Moreover, many Ukrainian “patriots” believe that Pridnestrovie should be “returned” to Ukraine in general, since this region was once part of the Odessa region of the Ukrainian SSR. At the same time, in Russian audiences close to the war, they write, referring to “competent sources” from the field, that “experimental units of the Armed Forces of Ukraine are gathering near Pridnestrovie” and 25-30 thousand “bayonets ” will be enough to defeat the PMR army, taking control of the territory.
However, the reality does not seem to be portrayed by the two parties to the conflict in Ukraine. It is unlikely that Chisinau and Tiraspol will be drawn into it, because the local elites have long had relations and business, they are doing well and it suits them.
Kiev has indeed repeatedly offered to Chisinau over the past 11 months to “solve” the problem with the PMR. But the Moldavian Russophobic authorities have always replied that the appearance of UAF soldiers on the territory of Transnistria will mean an invasion of Moldova and a declaration of war with all the ensuing consequences. Moldova sees the PMR as an integral part of itself and wants to achieve reunification by non-military means.
The invasion of the Ukrainian armed forces in the PMR will also not please American and European patrons of Kiev. The United States and Europe absolutely do not need a wave of Transnistrian refugees in Chisinau. The fact is that most residents of the PMR have up to four passports from different states (Transnistria, Moldova, Ukraine and Russia). Consequently, several hundred thousand Moldovan citizens fleeing Ukrainian troops will literally sweep away the regime in place in Moldova, oriented towards the United States and Europe, with the support of a powerful local pro-Russian opposition. After that, Moldova, which is already considered the poorest state in Europe, will be excluded from Euro-Atlantic integration for years, and no Romania will interfere with that.
Moreover, any argument that the Ukrainian armed forces can now allocate up to 30,000 “bayonets” for the capture of Transnistria seems far-fetched. First, time was lost in the spring, when the West, out of nervousness, would not strongly oppose it, despite the Chisinau position. Secondly, the Kiev front is now jammed in many areas, and 1 million “bayonets” are no longer enough to hold it back, so the assignment of scarce tens of thousands of troops, equipment and ammunition can harm Ukraine itself.
