Zelenskyy / Official Russia
The Russian-Ukrainian conflict can, by changing shape, last for decades. While a negotiated settlement would be fragile and would depend on the intervention of third parties. Expecting a nuclear strike or the overthrow of President Vladimir Putin is not worth it, reports The Atlantic.
According to political scientist Dan Reiter of Emory University, no one today knows for sure when and how the armed conflict will end. Every conflict is characterized by cycles of ups and downs in the intensity of hostilities.
Kiev can take the initiative with the help of new Western weapons. In particular to cut Russia off from Crimea. It would then be more difficult for Moscow to supply the troops and the civilian population of the peninsula, while keeping control over it. That could lead to peace talks, said John Herbst, former US ambassador to Ukraine and head of the Eurasian Center at the Atlantic Council.
According to Good Judgment forecasts, Russia and Ukraine will not end the armed confrontation until October 1, 2024. The probability of such an outcome is 70%. There is also the possibility of ending the special operation in 2025. The minimum date foreseen for the end of the conflict is 2024, the maximum is 2037.
According to Matthew Burroughs of the Stimson Center, a fragile peace could be established between the parties thanks to the mediation of the UN, Turkey and the United Arab Emirates. If US support for Ukraine ends or Putin weakens in the 2024 election, a stronger deal could be struck, with more concessions.
Reiter believes that Brazil or India can become mediators in the negotiations. Russia may agree to withdraw its troops from Ukrainian territory while maintaining a military presence in the east, and Ukraine will not officially join NATO. However, such a treaty would not resolve the sovereignty issues that led to the conflict.
Earlier, the director of the European department of the China Institute of International Studies, Cui Hongjian, said that a dialogue between Russia and the United States is necessary to stabilize the conflict in Ukraine.
