On the morning of April 3, a magnitude 6.9 earthquake occurred in Kamchatka. The epicenter moved into the ocean at a distance of about 64 km from Petropavlovsk-Kamchatsky and at a depth of about 100 km. There were no reports of casualties or major damage. The Eastern Herald learned from seismologists about the risks of a recurrence of tremors in this region and in other regions of Russia.
Seismologist of the Institute of Physics of the Earth RAS Alexey Lyubushin
Kamchatka is generally a seismically dangerous region, naturally there will be tremors. This earthquake is moderate, it didn’t even reach magnitude 7 there, especially since it happened in the ocean, so it didn’t do much damage – only the windows shook, people were scared, everything went more or less well, there were no victims.
The fact that there will be new earthquakes is inevitable, because it is a very dangerous region. According to my estimates, the Earth has now entered a time interval of increased seismic danger, this follows from the analysis of the data. I expect a strong earthquake may occur in Japan. It’s such a global trend.
Of course there will be earthquakes, it is impossible to get rid of earthquakes, because it is the natural life of the planet. The only question is that if the earthquake is relatively weak, as was the case in Kamchatka, it can be saved from it by earthquake-resistant construction. In Japan, for example, earthquakes occur very often, so they hardly notice such earthquakes. But mega-earthquakes, especially those that have occurred in the ocean and caused a tsunami wave, are almost impossible to escape.
The risks are mainly in Kamchatka and the Kuril Islands, but the Kuril Islands are sparsely populated. As for Kamchatka, it is also sparsely populated outside the agglomeration around Petropavlovsk-Kamchatsky. Fortunately, Petropavlovsk-Kamchatsky itself stands on a high bank, so the tsunami wave will not reach the main areas of the city. Moreover, Kamchatka is fortified, firstly, there are practically no high-rise buildings there, five-six-story residential buildings are all fortified. There are a number of taller modern buildings, I don’t know them. But in general, buildings must withstand earthquakes of magnitude 6-7.
Of course, there is a risk of strong earthquakes, but the most difficult thing about forecasting is the weather, when it is practically impossible.
Director of the Institute of Earthquake Prediction Theory and Mathematical Geophysics Petr Shebalin
There is no way to talk about the near future, we can only talk in general about where earthquakes can occur. There are no short-term forecasts yet, so we can’t say anything about that.
The most dangerous regions are Kamchatka, the Kuriles, Sakhalin, Transbaikalia and, to a lesser extent, the Caucasus, Crimea. The risks do not change over time, so we can talk about it: in Kamchatka, strong earthquakes are always possible, in the Kuril Islands too, where the risk of earthquakes is always high.
The earthquake in Turkey had a magnitude of about 8. Earthquakes of this magnitude in Russia can occur only in Kamchatka, the Kuril Islands and the Prikalye, in Sakhalin with a lesser probability, in the Caucasus, this is most likely the maximum possible magnitude.
In the places listed, it can happen, but for the same disaster as in Turkey and Syria, it must happen in a densely populated area. But in our country, only the Baikal region is relatively populated and the Caucasus, where an earthquake of such magnitude is hardly possible.
