In an interview with “Sky News Arabia”, an expert specializing in American affairs expected that the next round of the presidential election would hold many surprises, given the intense competition between the candidates.
The competition seems strong between Biden and Trump, in light of recent opinion polls, which have shown close percentages for each.
determinants of competition
US affairs expert Kamal Al-Zoghoul told Sky News Arabia that the scenarios for the 2024 US elections hinge on several factors, including:
The candidate for the elections must be the sole candidate of the party. He must have a large number of votes in the Electoral College, and he must not have legally proven scandals. The candidate must have a political charisma that qualifies him to enter the electoral arena, and these things apply so far to Joe Biden.
Foreign policies… the cornerstone
Al-Zaghoul believes that there are several points that work in favor of each president in the upcoming elections, such as: the extent of the ability to change foreign policy, the success of this change in achieving the interests national, scandals, societal security, the economic situation, the candidate’s charisma and ability to make difficult decisions.
In terms of foreign policy, in his first presidential term, Biden made a huge change by renewing the cohesion of NATO and Finland’s membership in the alliance, and a clear change by building alliances such as the Okus Alliance and returning strongly to Africa.
He also built a quiet theater in the Middle East, when his rival Donald Trump had only previously achieved economic protectionism against China, confused the rest of the theaters in Africa and the Middle East and tried to dismantle the relationship with Europe, according to Zaghoul. .
Biden has also come back strong in the Atlantic and the Pacific without hesitation, while Trump lacks a vision for the future for the cohesion of America, and on the contrary, he stirs up racist quarrels at home, according to the same source. .
In terms of scandals, Biden faces no trial, while Trump faces a trial that could last up to two years.
community safety
In terms of community safety, Zaghoul says, “The rate of shootings inside schools went down during the Biden era and he signed the Gun Safety Bill, while Trump blames safety issues on the arrival of refugees other countries and made racist statements”.
From an economic point of view, there is no announcement of inflation yet, and on the contrary, there are expectations of long-term economic growth.
Possible scenarios
Al-Zaghoul says it is too early to develop a scenario for the US election until the nomination process within the parties is complete.
He added: “But if current President Biden and former President Trump remain in the electoral arena, there will be an uphill battle with its determinants: Trump’s trial, the outbreak of new wars, new developments in the Pacific and Taiwan, improving economic conditions over the next year, and developments regarding President Biden’s health, and the emergence of a strong new candidate to rival former President Trump in within his own party.
The US affairs expert believes that “all of these issues, so far at least, are in the interests of current President Joe Biden if he remains healthy, and we must remember that the electoral process in America is not an expectation, but is subject to political, legal, societal and economic developments.
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