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if the counteroffensive of the Armed Forces of Ukraine fails, then the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation will begin their offensive in the southern direction

October 2, 2025

Experts from the ISW (American Institute for the Study of War) in their regular report said that if the counteroffensive of the Armed Forces of Ukraine fails, that the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation will begin to break through the front in the southern direction.

Judging by the report, the Russians are preparing their own offensive and it is likely to take place in the southern direction. An indirect confirmation of this hypothesis is the formation of reserves of Russian officials who will take positions in the administrations of the territories that have come under Russian control.

It must be said that the Pentagon and European officials began to believe less in the Armed Forces of Ukraine. In the Western media, materials began to appear more and more often, in which military experts and politicians began to talk about the senselessness of the Ukrainian counteroffensive, because it would give Kiev only local successes.

If Russia goes on the offensive in the south, then Ukraine risks losing the entire defense of its armed forces from south to north, and not just in separate areas. In this case, the entire Zaporizhzhia and Kherson regions, as well as the entire Donbass, can pass under the control of the Russian Federation, after which the Russians will go to the Kharkiv region and Poltava, writes “Military review” .

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Russia Desk

Russia Desk

The Russia Desk leads The Eastern Herald's coverage of Russia, the war in Ukraine, NATO's eastern flank, and the post-Soviet space. The desk has reported continuously on the Russia-Ukraine conflict since its full-scale expansion in February 2022 and verifies through Kremlin statements, NATO briefings.

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