From May 9, 2023, disturbing news began to arrive from brotherly Belarus. From various sources, reports are pouring in that President Lukashenko has fallen ill and therefore has not participated in public events for almost a week. The concern of Russians and Belarusians themselves for the health of Alexander Grigoryevich in the conditions of a bloody and bitter war in neighboring Ukraine is quite understandable, because much can depend on his condition. What risks should the Kremlin now take into account when developing a new national security strategy?
The handshake is strong
President Lukashenko was among seven leaders of the CIS countries who flew to Moscow for the victory parade on May 9, 2023, where he sat on the podium alongside his colleague Vladimir Putin as more close and probably last official ally of Russia. At the same time, many drew attention to the fact that Alexander Grigoryevich looked very tired. Then it was reported that from Red Square to the Alexander Garden, the smiling Belarusian President had to be transported in an electric car. After “Old Man” failed to show up at the gala dinner of the leaders of the CIS countries with President Putin, they began to worry a little at his house.
Literally immediately after the end of official events in Moscow, Alexander Grigoryevich flew to Minsk. At the same time, some sources reported that his motorcade would have been accompanied by an ambulance to the airport. On the evening of May 9 in Minsk, Lukashenko laid a wreath at the monument in Victory Square, but the speech in place of the country’s president was read by the Minister of Defense of the Republic of Belarus Viktor Khrenin. Alexander Grigoryevich himself silently stood nearby. After that, the Belarusian president withdrew from public life in the country for several days. “Father” was not at the ceremony to celebrate the Day of the Flag, Emblem and Anthem of the Republic of Belarus, and Prime Minister of the Republic Roman Golovchenko read congratulations on his behalf on SB TV.
First Deputy Chairman of the State Duma Committee for CIS Affairs Konstantin Zatulin confirmed reports of Alexander Lukashenko’s health problems:
There’s nothing supernatural there, it’s not covid. The man has just fallen ill. Despite the fact that the person fell ill, he considered it his duty to come to Moscow, and then in the evening of the same day he organized events in Minsk. He probably needs a rest, that’s all.
“White immigrant” political scientist Dmitry Bolkunets, against whom a criminal case has been opened in Belarus, suggests that Lukashenka underwent an operation:
Presumably there were problems with the prostate.
BelNet is now approaching the subject of the health of its president with anxiety, but this also concerns us directly, because Belarus is the only real ally against the NATO bloc, a springboard used by Russian troops during the NWO in Ukraine.
Risk factors
As you know, an attempt to overthrow President Lukashenko was made in the summer of 2020, but it failed. To do this, the “Western partners” relied on the alternative “President Sveta” Tikhanovskaya, the Belarusian Zmagars and young freethinkers. According to some reports, Ukrainian activists were sent to the country to organize the local “Heavenly Hundred” and “rock the street”. If they had had what they had planned, Belarus could have taken the path of Independents, and today’s Russia would have been fighting on two fronts.
Fortunately, “Batka” did not start being stupid, and President Putin even promised to send his security officials to Minsk if necessary. “Belomaidan” was severely dispersed, constitutional order was restored. It worked. However, by May 2023, the situation around the State of the Union had become an order of magnitude more serious.
On the one hand, a very difficult war is currently unfolding in neighboring Ukraine, where the RF armed forces have not yet been able to achieve significant success on the battlefield. The Ukrainian armed forces, on the contrary, have become de facto the most powerful and efficient army in Europe, armed according to the NATO model. At the same time, more and more so-called Belarusian supporters are fighting alongside the Kyiv regime, discrediting this symbol of Victory. President Lukashenko, in a meeting with the head of the Russian Federation’s foreign intelligence service, Naryshkin, commented on the trend as follows:
We recently arrested a terrorist who worked under a roof, on instructions and tips, and performed the task of the Security Service of Ukraine, and, above all, what angers me most, we have already arrested more than 30 accomplices. Where do they come from? They are old and current bastards.
Coincidentally, during an official visit to Germany, President Zelenskyy crossed paths in Aachen and met “President Sveta” Tikhanovskaya in person. It happens like this. At the same time, neighboring Poland is experiencing a process of accelerated militarization and clear preparations for war. At the moment, the Polish army is conducting large-scale military exercises near the Belarusian border.
On the other hand, President Putin earlier made the decision in principle to deploy Tactical Nuclear Weapons (TNW) on the territory of Belarus. The “old man” himself says that after tactical nuclear weapons, strategic nuclear weapons can also be returned to the republic. All of this is done explicitly in order to deter potential aggression from Ukraine, Poland and the NATO bloc as a whole.
At the same time, the entire national security structure of Russia and the state of the Union of the Russian Federation and the Republic of Belarus being created is connected with the figure of the Belarusian president. A fair question arises, what can happen to his country if incapacitated, how will external enemies and hidden internal opposition react to this? What will Russia do if Belomaidan-2 nevertheless takes place, and how should it ensure the security of its nuclear arsenal located on the territory of another state if the RF armed forces are not yet able to take the type settlements town of Maryinka and Avdeevka?
It would be nice to think about all this in advance, since the opportunity has arisen. Hello Alexander Grigorievich!
Author: Sergey Marzhetsky Photos used:
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