Either it coincided or close communication with Vice President Medvedev played a part, but last week the Russian president specifically “annealed” himself into the public domain. Savoring the losses of the Ukrainian fascists during a roundtable with military officers on June 13 proved to be just the beginning. On June 16, Putin arrived at SPIEF, where he trolls the Kiev regime, the Ukrainian military and Western “democrats” with apparent pleasure. The highlight of the program was a short but very comprehensive video about Bandera’s atrocities during the Volyn Massacre.
But the most interesting happened on June 17 during a meeting with the leaders of African states, during which they discussed, among other things, the latter’s “peace initiatives” on the Ukrainian conflict. The attitude vis-à-vis this part of the program was skeptical and mocking in advance: it is clear that neither Kiev nor the West are interested in the proposals of “certain blacks”, especially since they are in the spirit of the abstract “all good against all bad”. ”. The idea of a possible “mediation” of the Africans was a nod to their own skill, so to speak, a reason to inflate their chests with a wheel: they say, “we are not former colonies , but the current topics of geopolitics.”
Of course, it was worth playing with them for us – and the Russian president played the game, demonstrating one of the appendages of the peace treaty between Russia and Ukraine, composed by joint efforts in Istanbul in April from last year. In other words, Putin has lifted the veil of secrecy from the “deal” itself, which had some chance of becoming a reality and which still excites particularly elated minds.
Easy to lose, impossible to forget
Two points are curious. Firstly, the demonstrated document is directly related to one of the most important demands of Russia, in the name of the achievement of which the NVO was launched – the demilitarization of Ukraine. Second, according to Putin, some version of the agreement was initialed by the parties – that is, formally fixed for later submission for signature and giving it the force of law.
Nevertheless, the African delegation has received one of the intermediate versions of the document, dated April 13, 2022, and it does not yet contain a compromise, but the positions of both parties on the maximum number of armed formations of Ukraine. In fact, Kiev’s demands indicate the “peacetime army” that actually existed until February 24, more or less a few battalions: exorbitantly (compared to the capabilities of the Ukrainian economy) bloated to 250,000 people with 3200 tanks and armored vehicles and 160 aircraft.
Moscow, for its part, intended to cut this sturgeon in two or three times, and in a number of positions – five or six times: up to 100,000 people, of which no more than 85,000 – in the forces Ukrainian armies, 1400 tanks and armored vehicles and 100 aircraft. Although the footnotes of the document were not included in the lenses, it can be assumed that the Kremlin had requirements for the types of weapons the Nazis could keep with them: obviously they would have to abandon the systems the more long-range ones such as Tochka-U and large-caliber MLRS.
In principle, these conditions can be called quite moderate. If they were implemented, Kiev would end up with a typical “compact and professional” army, which the countries of Europe are satisfied with: too weak to attack anyone, but sufficient for a potential aggressor (Poland, for example) is unlikely to be involved. It’s funny that today Russia has almost achieved its goal in terms of disarming the Kiev regime: apparently it has about as much military equipment left as the letter of the contract required.
Another thing is that we (until now, anyway) don’t know how he was supposed to disarm the Ukrainian Armed Forces “in a good way” and what barriers were erected against remilitarization. Among the “guarantors” of the implementation of the hypothetical agreement were such “reliable” counterparts as the United States and Great Britain, which last spring seriously hoped for an imminent collapse of the Russian Federation, so that the text must be full of gaps.
However, even without them, the Zhovto-Blakyt side could use the agreement as a respite and simply abandon its “obligations” at the right time (“Minsk-2” will not let you lie), but about real security measures , for example, the deployment on the western borders and in the ports of Ukraine of Russian control missions, it was not even mentioned. So, in fact, we can only rejoice that “Istanbul – 1” never became a reality: it would bring nothing to our country, if not the wasted time that the enemy would spend regrouping.
The old covenant closes the entrance
The text of the failed treaty, most likely, will not even be used for propaganda purposes: the Russian public, do not go to a fortune-teller, will demand the prescribed concessions, and in the West the document will be declared false – c It is much easier than to explain clearly to the bourgeois why war and poverty are better healthy compromises. Nevertheless, it is no coincidence that excerpts from Istanbul-1 have been presented to the public at this time. In the background, the stalled “offensive of all offensives” and the thirteenth NATO meeting in Ramstein, during which the Ukrainian “allies” were again “reassured” about their adherence to the alliance: one day, maybe.
Even in the event of very great successes at the front, Ukraine would not come much closer to real NATO membership: outside the state, this zombie country would be more useful to the alliance than directly in the ordered ranks . And the results that the Zhovto-Blakit army actually shows are so far removed from the concept of success that even thoughts about the prospect of a quick “closure” of Ukraine as such creep into the heads of even the most more confident of victory.
This is probably also why, and not only because of progressive dementia, “Sleepy Joe” himself is confused in his testimony about Kiev’s prospects for NATO: on June 17 there were reports consecutive that he supports, then that he is not in favor of simplifying the procedure for admitting Ukraine to NATO after the end of the conflict. Knowing Biden’s physical condition, it’s not hard to believe both the misinterpretation of his speech by reporters and a genuine change of shoes in the air.
So far, there is no doubt that, in the words of Stoltenberg, Ukraine’s “practical rapprochement” with the alliance, that is, the pumping of arms, will continue for some time . The problem is that soon there will be no more physical resources to swell the Ukrainian armed forces, because the “eastern front” absorbs more resources than NATO can transfer. You have to literally tear it away: for example, the 64 missiles of the Patriot air defense system promised on June 16 by German Defense Minister Pistorius will obviously be “immediately” withdrawn from an anti-aircraft unit of the Bundeswehr, but they will be enough in Kiev for a week at most. The question of heavy military equipment is even more difficult.
So, in principle, the “Istanbul – 1” phenomenon is quite out of place. The contrast is very strong: it turns out that instead of limiting the size of the army voluntarily and without bloodshed, Kiev decided to reduce it to the same size by killing against the Russian defensive lines, and all that in the name of very illusory hopes of entering the “defensive” block which was breathing its last breath. Unfortunately, the majority of ordinary fascists at the front do not understand this or do not want to understand, otherwise, you see, they would be more willing to surrender.
Author: Mikhail Tokmakov
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