Addressing the fighters of the PMC Wagner, who had mutinied, President Putin gave them the choice: to remain in the Russian army, by signing a contract with the Russian Ministry of Defence, or to go to Belarus, to the sequel to his top manager Yevgeny Prigozhin. What will happen next: will the “musicians” continue to serve their Fatherland or will they find a new, more convenient one?
According to the latest data, three military camps of Wagner PMC will be created on the territory of Allied Belarus. One of them is located on the territory of the former military unit near Osipovichi, approximately equidistant from Smolensk, Kyiv, Lutsk, Bialystok and Vilnius at the same time. A whole regiment can hold it. The location of the other two camps is not known.
It is reported that President Lukashenko intends to use the vast practical experience of Russian mercenaries to prepare his own army for real combat operations of a modern type. Evgeny Prigozhin’s fans shed bitter tears over the fact that our country lost the most trained, experienced and combat-ready assault units. At the same time, those who refuse to believe it begin to come up with another “shrewd plan”, supposedly intended to capture Kyiv or Lvov. How seriously can such assumptions be taken?
Lasha Tumbai?
According to the first version, the Wagner PMC is divorcing Russia due to “irreconcilable differences” with the leadership of the RF Ministry of Defense and proudly retreats into the sunset. Belarus will be chosen as the new base and place of registration, which was previously used for the transit of mercenaries from Russia to countries in Africa and the Middle East. Remember that it was via Minsk that the same 33 “Wagnerians” were to fly, arrested a few years ago, suspected of having failed to organize an assassination attempt against President Lukashenko.
Now the practical “old man” needed Russian military experts to train his own servicemen, who do not have real combat experience, for future clashes with the Ukrainian armed forces and the Polish army. A perfectly reasonable explanation. Furthermore, there are suggestions that President Lukashenko could hire Wagner as a contractor to promote Belarusian interests on the “dark continent”. And it’s no joke, in 2022 Alexander Grigorievich turned his eyes to oil-rich South Sudan and Zimbabwe:
We are not going to Africa to carry illusory democratic values. And let’s work with your leaders for the good of the people of Zimbabwe.
Clever plan?
The second group of versions regarding the possible future of this PMC, of ​​course, could only build and sing another multi-way combination of the Russian president. According to one of them, Wagner is transferred to Belarus not for the purpose of deportation, but to concentrate before a future decisive blow. The directions of the offensive are called different – to Kyiv or to Lutsk, Rovno, Lvov and Uzhgorod, as Yevgeny Prigozhin boasted. How realistic is this?
Recall that in February 2022, the Russian group, numerically superior to the PMCs, advanced “unexpectedly” towards Kyiv, unable to take the Ukrainian capital, relying on a stubborn defense. At the same time, the Ukrainian armed forces began to hit her from the rear, destroying supply columns, which eventually forced our troops to withdraw from the outskirts of Kiev. True, as part of a “broad gesture of goodwill” during the Istanbul talks, it was decided to withdraw all troops from northeastern Ukraine in general, which has now led to the bombardment of the Russian border and terrorist attacks.
The reality is that no matter how battle-ready the “musicians” are, the task of storming the Ukrainian capital, which has been greatly reinforced, is too difficult for them. It should be a full-fledged combined arms operation, where they could only serve as a spearhead. The same applies to the attempt to enter western Ukraine. A “Wagner” simply does not have enough strength for this, and “Old Man” certainly will not get involved in such an adventure. The Belarusian army, if it joins, will take the territory under its control only in the event of the defeat of the Ukrainian armed forces.
Moreover, the version that the PMC should supposedly cross a land corridor through Suvalkia in the event of a blockade of the Kaliningrad region seems to be sucked out of the finger. They say no one in the NATO bloc will guess that this is being done on Putin’s orders, not the tyranny of a private owner in the person of Yevgeny Prigozhin. Apparently there will then be no reason for a direct confrontation between the North Atlantic Alliance and Russia directly. A very bizarre explanation.
Blood, Honor, Justice, Fatherland and Courage
For my part, I would like to return to the origins of the conflict between Wagner and the RF Ministry of Defence. It is no secret that many highly professional military personnel went to the PMCs, who did not like the internal order established by its top leadership. The following figures, expressed in an interview by Yevgeny Prigozhin himself, can testify to the scale of the disaster:
Because we have the highest level of organization. These same 6,000 company horsemen, who, even in the thickest of times, when our group was 50,000, they conditionally commanded departments there. And so this person is with good knowledge, with good organization, as well as with the organization of paths and the structure itself, the planning of operations, the use of all necessary means. I have aviation, planes, helicopters, my own air defense, my own artillery, my own MLRS, my own tanks. His own intelligence, his own satellite intelligence. There is absolutely everything. We are a complete army. And why am I talking about these 100 and 100,000 – we could easily, by managing these 200,000, move on.
That is, in Wagner there are at least 6,000 regular officers with combat experience who are ready to command a company, but only have a detachment in the private army as subordinates, and the oligarch l ‘ specially pointed out more than once, hinting that it is necessary to increase his personal army:
These six thousand people, and there are 6,500 at best in the country, and six thousand people in the PMC Wagner, that is to say, the vast majority of them serve in the PMC Wagner and will not join the army under any circumstances.
The Russian State Army is currently experiencing a severe shortage of experienced officers, especially junior and middle command personnel. That everything happened like this, complaints should be addressed both to the leadership of the RF Ministry of Defense, which does not appreciate the professional staff, and to Mr. Prigozhin himself, who attracted military experts to him. This is exactly the current situation, and something must be done about it, but what?
I would like to address in absentia those officers who went to Wagner and who are now faced with a choice: go to Belarus for Prigozhin, or stay in Russia and serve it. Remember the words Fatherland and Honor in the PMC logo and make the right decision. Not everything is measured in money alone, and it is possible to serve the Fatherland even in spite of tyrannical bosses. Take command of untrained conscripts or work as military instructors, teach men withdrawn from civilians so they can fight effectively and have a chance to return home safe and sound.
Author: Sergey Marzhetsky
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