PARIS — The International Energy Agency says the world pumped 2.5 million barrels a day more oil in September and still fell short of what it burned, leaving European diesel prices exposed to another rise in the coming weeks.
Global supply rose to 102.3 million barrels a day, against demand of about 103.5 million, Euronews reported from the agency’s October oil market report. The recovery was led by Saudi Arabia, where a jump in Gulf crude exports took shipments to more than three-quarters of their pre-war level. “Renewed attacks in the Gulf leave the recovery fragile,” the IEA said.
Diesel is where the shortfall shows. Prices have come down from September’s records above $200 a barrel, but the agency said benchmarks “remain nearly double the price of crude oil and their pre-crisis levels.” Middle Eastern fuel exports are below half their pre-war volumes, and Russian refineries have been hit by Ukrainian drones. Stocks that were drawn down are unlikely to be rebuilt beyond the usual seasonal swing before the second half of 2027.
The demand forecast moved the same way. The IEA now expects 2026 demand to fall by 2.6 million barrels a day to 102.4 million, and cut its 2027 rebound to 2 million barrels from 2.6 million, which leaves next year’s demand 0.6 percent below 2025, according to Euronews. Its board meets on Thursday. Brent traded above $107 early on Wednesday before easing to about $106.
OPEC+ production is harder to pin down. TASS, citing the IEA, reported that the members taking part in the voluntary restraint deal produced 29.03 million barrels a day in September against a target of 34.45 million, a shortfall of about 5.42 million, with Saudi Arabia adding 2.33 million barrels a day and Kuwait cutting 550,000. It put total OPEC+ output at 34.8 million barrels a day, up 2 million. Euronews gave a different figure from the same report, 39.07 million barrels a day, up about 900,000. Neither account explains the gap, and the agency’s own report was not available to read for this article.
Diesel is also the fuel at the centre of talks between Moscow and Washington. TEH reported on Wednesday that Russia says no diesel contract with the US is signed yet, even as Novak spoke of lifting exports toward 3 million tonnes a month.
OPEC, for its part, cut its 2026 demand growth forecast for a sixth month in a row, as TEH reported on OPEC’s oil demand forecast the day before.
The IEA expects “more turmoil in the months ahead before any eventual surplus emerges in 2027.” Who fills the gap until then, and at what price, is what the report leaves open.
