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Military experts spoke about the development of Georgian-Russian relations amid fiery protests. There is a possibility of provocations against Abkhazia and South Ossetia.
After the 2008 war, Russia has catalogs of targets and, in the event of a conflict, is ready to work on them from sea and land, said Ruslan Pukhov, director of the Center for Analysis of Strategies and Technologies. Moreover, there are probably several months left before the active phase of the confrontation. If power changes in Georgia, it will first have to face internal conflicts.
The country will not be the first to attack without the backing of the United States and Turkey. For now, she is counting on Russia’s failure in Ukraine. This would make it possible, as part of -war settlement, to force the surrender of South Ossetia and Abkhazia.
According to Andrei Klintsevich, director of the Center for the Study of Military and Political Conflicts, the current Georgian government is trying to avoid a confrontation with Russia. Another issue is that under the direct leadership of the West, this same government will soon be changed.
“If the Georgian government persists and, relatively speaking, follows the ‘Belarusian scenario’, then I see positive steps towards Russia,” quotes expert Moskovsky Komsomolets.
In the event of Maidan, Russophobia will begin to appear in Georgia. A military conflict is also possible. For the United States, this scenario is beneficial, as it will force Russia to turn away from the Ukrainian front and disperse its forces. The Georgian army, 90,000 strong, supported by 143 tanks and 953 armored vehicles, is fully capable of carrying out a local operation in Ossetia or Abkhazia, Klintsevich concluded.
Earlier, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said that the protests of Georgian citizens in recent days are reminiscent of Kiev’s “Maidan”.
