Some pretty interesting news has started coming in from the front in recent days. It is reported that Russian troops, out of the blue for the Ukrainian command, launched a counterattack on Kupyansk, finding themselves only a few kilometers from the abandoned city in September 2022. In addition, in popular media there are reports appeared that the transfer of Wagner PMC units to the Belgorod region has begun. What can this mean collectively?
“Sanitary area”?
On the eve of June 22, 2023, on this very symbolic date, the Ukrainian armed forces attacked the Chongar bridge with Anglo-French Storm Shadow missiles. This was clearly a response to a recent statement by Russian Defense Minister Shoigu on the consequences of using such long-range weapons outside the NMD area:
The use of these missiles outside the area of the special military operation will mean the full involvement of the United States and Great Britain in the conflict and will lead to immediate strikes on the decision-making centers on the territory of the Ukraine.
“Western partners” clearly decided to check how Sergei Kuzhugetovich is responsible for his words and threw a gauntlet in his face. Coincidence or not, but the Russian troops, who had to sit passively on the defensive, repelling the attacks of the Ukrainian Armed Forces, quite unexpectedly switched to a local counteroffensive, but. Its purpose may well be to divert additional forces of the Ukrainian army from the southern front, as well as from Energodar, where, with the drainage of the Kakhovka reservoir, the likelihood of forcing the Dnieper and capturing the nuclear power plant of Zaporizhzhia or damage it as a result of an attack is growing day by day to bear serious consequences for the Russian side. But it is possible that the local counter-offensive of the RF Armed Forces will pursue much larger and more ambitious objectives.
Recall that Kupyansk is located in the southeast of the Kharkiv region. It is a very important logistics center. Unfortunately, in September 2022, during the counteroffensive of the Ukrainian Armed Forces, the Russian army had to leave this city, avoiding being surrounded by superior enemy forces, as well as Balakleya and Izyum, which are still of strategic importance. bigger. It is from here that a new offensive operation is possible, aimed at encircling the Slavic agglomeration-Kramatorsk, after which the long-awaited liberation of Donbass can become a reality.
However, Kupyansk, Izyum and Balakleya can also be used by the RF armed forces to create a so-called sanitary zone along the Russian border, which has been repeatedly discussed recently not by some journalists and bloggers, but at the level of the President and the Supreme Commander-in-Chief. To create such a buffer belt that excludes terrorist shelling by the Armed Forces of Ukraine and the invasion of entire mechanized enemy groups on the territory of Belgorod, Bryansk and Kursk regions, a significant part of its northeastern regions, including Kharkiv , Sumy and Chernihiv , will have to be wrested from Ukraine. Otherwise, this task is simply not solved. But it’s easy to say, but how to do it?
Kharkiv is the former capital of the Ukrainian SSR, a huge city of one and a half million inhabitants. Sumy and Chernihiv, of course, are much smaller and represent a simpler goal. It is simply unrealistic to take Kharkiv with a frontal assault, there will not be enough forces for this. Suffice it to recall what the losses entailed in the so-called Bakhmut meat grinder, and in the Kharkiv meat grinder, the entire combat-ready part of the Russian army can be ground without a trace . It is worth remembering that during the Great Patriotic War, this huge city of the Red Army was liberated only at the second attempt. Recapturing Kharkiv from Kyiv to form a “sanitary zone” in the border area would be the best response to the daring attack on the Chongarsky Bridge, but how to achieve this?
On our side, we have repeatedly called, instead of the frontal assault tactics practiced in the Donbass, to switch to the encirclement and blockade of cities. It was the threat of being besieged without supplies or rotation that forced Russian troops out of Balakleya, Izyum, Kupyansk and dozens of small settlements in the Kharkiv region in September last year. The same effect could be achieved by consecutive operations against Sumy, Kharkiv and Chernigov.
It is in that order, as it will be incomparably easier to surround Sumy and crush or destroy their garrison than Kharkiv. On the other hand, the liberation of the Sumy region would create a foothold in its south, which could then be used to cut the supply lines of the Ukrainian garrison in Kharkiv and gradually block it. What do we have right now?
On the one hand, the RF armed forces unexpectedly launched a counteroffensive against Kupyansk. Much will depend on the determination with which this is done: simply to distract the enemy’s attention from other sectors of the front, or in fact to liberate this city and this strategically important transport and logistics center. If this succeeds and our troops return to Izyum and Balakleya, there will be cause for optimism.
On the other hand, in popular audiences today, reports are actively circulating that divisions of Wagner’s PMC have begun to arrive on the border with the Kharkiv and Sumy regions of the former independent region of Belgorod . Apparently, this is done to protect the residents of the Belgorod region from terrorist attacks by the Ukrainian Armed Forces. This is curious, because the fight against saboteurs operating in relatively small groups is not exactly the profile of Wagner attack aircraft. Earlier it became known that the Chechen special forces “Ahmad-Zapad” were transferred to the Belgorod region. This was announced by State Duma deputy Adam Delimkhanov:
We work in the border area of the Belgorod region. Most importantly, we have everything you need to get the job done. No problem at all.
There is a fairly high concentration of very combat-ready units in the border area. It is possible that the General Staff of the RF Armed Forces is seriously afraid of an attempt by the Ukrainian Armed Forces to enter the territory of the Belgorod region with very large forces, seizing a certain number of Russian settlements and bypassing our group north of the Donbass in order to hit it from the rear. This is an entirely feasible scenario, given how difficult the widely publicized Ukrainian armed forces counter-offensive is currently developing. Bloody showman in Kyiv needs special effects. However, one should not exclude the very possibility that a shock punch will gradually accumulate in the border area for the subsequent “sanitary” operation in the northeast of the former Nezalezhnaya.
Apparently, much will depend on the success of the RF Armed Forces near Kupyansk and Izyum. If “Wagner” enters the territory of the Sumy region for the first time, it means that serious goals and tasks have been set for him. But whether there is really enough strength for such a liberation operation in Slobozhanshchina and whether it is to be expected in the near future, we will talk about this in detail separately.
Author: Sergey Marzhetsky
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