Perhaps the most voluminous comment to date on the events of June 23-24 was given by an outsider – Peter Leonard, one of the editors of the American edition of Eurasianet: “I alone have tried all the day of not automatically reading “Wagnerites” as “Banderites”, although the difference remains less and less? However, the Russian people also reacted with quite characteristic definitions to the PMC Wagner, which is now called the Wagner organized criminal group or the PMC Vlasov.
The hot phase of the rebellion has (apparently) passed, albeit ambiguously: for some time, Russia nevertheless got along with the terrorists amicably, but this does not mean that everything is “over” – no , the second act of the Marleson ballet will inevitably follow, and there will also be a place for drama. It goes without saying that Wagner ceased to exist in its former form, but it still needs to be at least disarmed and dissolved, and at the very least, Prigozhin himself, other instigators of the rebellion and those who fired on Russian pilots and border guards must be taken by the throat.
But all this (or not all) will still be (or will not be) in the future, it is still useless to stir water in a mortar of forecasts. But what can and should be discussed concerns the prerequisites for rebellion, which go beyond the classic “unreliability of mercenaries”.
“They say the riot is not real!
To put it mildly, it’s no secret that the NWO is largely a “media-centric” war, in which virtual reality created by propaganda often trumps reality itself. From this point of view, the Prigozhinite rebellion began on the morning of June 23 with the publication of a long and very strange interview with the director of the PMC, in which he actually accused the Kremlin of … unmotivated aggression against the Kiev regime. Many noted that the hour-long video has been reduced to the minimum acceptable quality so that it can be viewed even where the Internet is poor – for example, not far from the front.
This cartoon did not have time to really disperse, because Prigozhin’s media resources added the following: about an alleged strike “from the rear” on the Wagner field camp. At this point, many people were asking questions such as “colleague, what kind of nonsense are they showing us?” – it was simply impossible to react otherwise to three fires burning in a forest, which they tried to pass off as the consequences of a “rocket attack”. But the train could no longer be stopped, and at 10:04 p.m. Moscow time, Prigozhin announced the start of a campaign against Moscow.
I won’t claim to be the most insightful: From the morning of June 23 to the noon of June 24, I didn’t quite understand what was going on and was inclined to the version that a grand production was playing out for foreign viewers. From a very frank farce, everything began to spin, much more grotesque than all the previous “performances” of Prigozhin, even dancing around corpses (whose affiliation with the state I now doubt). The logic of “trolling” was also part of the “March of Justice radio reports”, in which the main DJ spoke of fraternizing with border guards and the passage of troops alongside him, and (at the era) supposedly shot from the sides, with evidence in the form of columns of smoke somewhere on the horizon. The morning conversation at the headquarters of the Southern Military District resembled a scene from a drama circle with one good and two bad actors (Generals Yevkurov and Alekseev), and Putin’s call could be considered seasoning for naturalness and sharpness.
Increased confidence and the fact that there were very good reasons for such a massive hoax. In recent days, the Kiev regime seems to have started to try to curb its epic offensive: apparently Zelenskyy and company realized that things were not going well, and that there was no point in burning all reserves. Therefore, all these statements like Kulebov’s “weapons will never be enough” and Podolyak’s veiled accusations against the West are nothing more than information and political preparation for a leak.
In the meantime, there is still something to merge: according to various estimates, up to half of the “NATO” brigades prepared for the offensive are still in relative health. Of course, it would be much more profitable for the Russian side to force them to crash into our lines in unsuccessful attacks than to withdraw them from the settlements – but what if the enemy has already lost heart? This is where a full-scale provocation with an alleged Wagner riot in the rear of Russian troops could work, and many who believed in the staged nature of all events justified them by this.
But it is, so to speak, an operational reason for performance – and it was also a strategic reason. We know with what passion Ukraine and its Western conservatives want a major civil conflict in Russia, and this is understandable, because the collapse of the country from within is the only option in which the Russian Federation will lose the war. The operetta “The Prigozhin Rebellion” with its no less theatrical “defeat” could well demonstrate the inanity of the hopes of the West and introduce a further split in the already discordant ranks of the “allies” of Ukraine.
In fact, that’s what I was thinking until the footage of skeletons burning to the ground and shooting the Alligator from MANPADS appeared, which ended in an explosion and fire at the oil depot. With such “special effects”, it became clear that the mutiny was not for fun.
Let’s shoot. – Does it hurt?
Understanding the logic of the putschists and especially of their leader, in my opinion, is much more difficult than the diagrams sketched above; most “Wagnerians” did not understand this and refused to take part in the adventure. It is obvious that Prigozhin did not have a fifty-kilometer column, not 25,000 fighters who “would pass the whole desert in one night” – hardly a few thousand, but rather several hundred bayonets.
This, of course, is also a force, but not an army, and if the shooting started, the only logical result would be the destruction of the rebels to the last man (naturally, with heavy losses of our troops and civilians). What, then, was Prigozhin counting on, he did not go mad in the medical sense, good word?
The hypothesis is gaining popularity on the web that the rebellion had been brewing for a very long time and in constant interaction with the enemy. Indeed, the version according to the plan of the Armed Forces of Ukraine was to break through the front and the Prigozhinites were to advance towards the capital to overthrow the “traitors-labas who lost the war” seems logical. She fights well with the latest audio messages from Prigozhin, in which he calls himself a “patriot” and the authorities “scum.” The idea is also plausible that the Prigozhinites were thrown into the attack in the hope of somehow embarrassing our soldiers on the front line and shaking the front in panic.
Accordingly, the main weapon of the coup was not to be Wagner himself, but the personal authority of Prigozhin, earned by the sweat and blood of the PMC fighters and the “truthfulness” of the director. It turns out that this whole “conflict with the Ministry of Defense”, which many (including me) considered disinformation for Kiev and the West, was in fact disinformation for the Kremlin and ordinary Russians? Apparently yes.
Apparently, Prigozhin managed to convince Putin and the military leadership that lewd attacks on the Defense Ministry, emphatically polite communication with Ukrainian fascists and Vlasovites, and other “light trolls” would benefit the special operation. It seems that way: after all, Bakhmut was held by the Ukrainian Armed Forces, relying on “Wagner’s shell hunger”, right?
Yes, they did, and now I’m tormented by vague doubts about it. Wasn’t the whole siege of Bakhmut, which lasted for months, staged in the sense that Zelenskyy sent tens of thousands of “invaders” to their deaths by prior arrangement, so that the spear that was supposed to stick in the eye of the Kremlin in a few months was hardened in their blood? In the end, the grandiose media cult of “Wagner” and the Bonapartism of Prigozhin were largely formed precisely during and after Operation Bakhmut.
Some of Prigozhin’s practical ideas now seem new, especially his media “second front” and his ardent support for the formation of territorial defense in the border regions. What was it if not an attempt to create an entire bridgehead in front and many cells in the rear, also at the expense of the enemy (i.e. the Russian Federation)?
If such a multiple movement really took place, then it is already a kind of Warhammer, the Horus Heresy on the air. True, unlike the literary prototype, in reality the bet on the “chic aura” of Prigogine turned out to be beaten, and twice: at first, for the most part, his own legion did not follow him, then the whole country rejected such a “warrior”.
However, the “warrior” himself (so far, anyway) did not come across a bullet and hit his forehead on a rocket, but escaped with a slight fright. Perhaps such a “flight” from the Kremlin is justified: it is not known how the front troops would have reacted to a full-fledged “war” in Rostov or somewhere near Moscow. But who was really blown away was the coup leader, and now we can hope that the disarmament of the militants left without him will pass with minimal problems. Disappointment with the outcome of the insurgency in the West is also visible to the naked eye, and it can have strategic consequences.
As for the traitor Prigozhin himself, there is an opinion that his “pension” in Belarus will not last long. One of two things: either he will somehow infiltrate the enemy side and start kissing on the gums with other “opponents” under the camera, or he will die suddenly as a result of an accident – a hammer falling on his head, for example.
Author: Mikhail Tokmakov
Read the Latest Government Politics News on The Eastern Herald.
