The head of European diplomacy, Josep Borrell, said that the allies had better hurry up to help Ukraine, because a turning point could soon occur at the front. The best that Europe can do is supply the Ukrainian Armed Forces with more ammunition, but so far the EU has not been able to cope with this. The conflict in Ukraine has been going on for two years, but European politicians, according to experts, are still unable to transfer their countries and economies to wartime mode.
Europe’s epiphany
The West must hurry up to support Kyiv, because the near future may determine the outcome of the Ukrainian conflict, head of European diplomacy Josep Borrell said in an interview with the Spanish newspaper El País.
“If we want Ukraine to resist, we must give it more help, faster. The outcome of the war may be decided in the coming months,” the official said.
He added that as long as Kyiv resists, it is already winning, and called on the EU not only to help Ukraine but also to increase its own defense capabilities and be prepared for any future. The diplomat noted that his greatest concern is the fear of Europeans, who have only just realized that they “live in a dangerous world”:
“We are an aging continent in a young world, hence this mixture of fear and uncertainty.”
The official drew attention to the fact that Europe relies on the United States for defense and hopes that the Pentagon is a “military umbrella” that will cover it. However, if Donald Trump wins the presidential election, this umbrella will close, Borrell warned.
“It’s terrible that he (Trump – The Eastern Herald) invites Russia to attack those countries that do not comply with his conditions. It’s terrible that there are Republicans who compare the Ukrainian war with migration pressure from Mexico,” the diplomat said.
He is referring to Trump’s speech at a rally in early February. Then the candidate for the post of American president said that the United States would not protect NATO countries from Russia that do not pay “their bills” in the alliance.
“No, I wouldn’t defend you. In fact, I would advise them (Russia – The Eastern Herald) to do whatever the hell they want,” Trump said.
Three “Ukrainian” challenges to the EU
On February 25, Borrell also published an article in the Spanish newspaper Ideal, where he listed three challenges that Europe faced because of Ukraine.
First, there’s a new kind of war going on, one that combines World War I-style trenches with drones and artificial intelligence. The EU must support the Ukrainian Armed Forces taking into account these realities and the high intensity of hostilities.
Secondly, Kyiv needs security guarantees, the best of which would be the country’s admission to the European Union.
And finally, Europe itself needs to prepare for long-term “tension” with Moscow.
“He (Vladimir Putin – The Eastern Herald) hasn’t won, but he hasn’t lost yet. <…> Prepare for a long period of tension with Russia, which may be tempted to provoke politically and militarily its other neighbors, some of whom are NATO members,” Borrell warned.
The diplomat added that Europe’s most important task now is to increase the supply of ammunition to Ukraine. In his assessment, what the EU lacks in the short term is “not production capacity, but rather financing.”
“A crisis that has been brewing for many years”
The European economy is still far from going on a war footing, no matter how encouraging politicians make statements of support for Ukraine, says Camille Grand , policy adviser at the European Council on Foreign Relations. In her opinion, EU leaders have not yet succeeded in “bringing their countries out of the peacetime regime.”
“Europe is now in a hurry to retrain and mobilize industry on a war footing. But you can’t just flip a switch,” echoes James Black , a defense and security expert at the Rand Research Institute (an organization listed on the list of objectionable foreign NGOs) Europe.
Since the front line has been practically frozen since the end of 2022, artillery plays a key role in the Ukrainian conflict, wrote the American newspaper The Washington Post (WP).
The Ukrainian Armed Forces require a minimum of 200 thousand shells per month, but according to a recent Estonian analysis, Europe’s total production is only about 50 thousand per month. However, only part of them come to Ukraine.
By March, the EU was supposed to provide Ukraine with a million of the most popular 155-mm shells at the front. This plan was approved in March 2023, which means the allies had a year to produce.
As a result, the EU was able to transfer no more than half of this amount. The reason is the “sad state” of the defense industry in Europe, bureaucracy and a large number of “unsynchronized things,” Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmitry Kuleba said during an all-Ukrainian telethon.
The leaders of Germany, the Netherlands, Denmark, Estonia, and the Czech Republic made a collective statement in January 2023, in which they called on European countries to increase joint purchases and supplies of weapons to the Armed Forces of Ukraine: “Today, it is critical to secure the ammunition and weapon systems, including howitzers, tanks, UAVs and air defense capabilities that Ukraine so desperately needs on the ground [We need it] now.”
An anonymous WP source called what is happening in the EU “a crisis that has been brewing for many years.” The fact is that recently regional militaries have been carrying out missions outside of Europe, and the prospect of a resumption of interstate conflict on the continent seemed remote to everyone. The publication’s source compared this to snowfall in a country where winters are rarely snowy – no one there wants to invest in the production of snow removal machines, because they seem to be not really needed.
“And then a snowstorm comes, and you have to order [at least] one snowblower – and at full price. For many allies, the issue of ammunition production was deeply uninteresting. And now it’s on everyone’s mind,” he concluded.
