Statistical data on gas exports to Uzbekistan and China differ significantly

Data on gas exports to Uzbekistan and China differ by $159.5 million. The Minister of Energy indicated that China was considering the transit of Turkmen gas. No “Gazeta.uz” calculated , so the stats diverge sharply because of that. In December, exports did not cease, despite the declarations of the authorities.
Statistical data on the export of gas to Uzbekistan and China differ significantly, even taking into account the cost of gas transit, which may testify to the unaccounted export of blue fuel, despite the government statement on the suspension of supplies. “Gazeta.uz” came to this conclusion, having studied data from the Statistical Agency of the President of Uzbekistan and the General Administration of Customs of the People’s Republic of China.
According to the Statistics Agency, in 2022 Uzbekistan exported gas worth $910.9 million. Most deliveries came from China.
The Chinese side reported importing Uzbek gas for $1.07 billion, or $159.5 million, or 18.2 percent, more than Uzbekistan. The difference may be greater if the amount of gas supplied to Kyrgyzstan for 10 months is $5.2 million.
“Gazeta.uz” has already written about the differences in statistical gas data. In particular, in November, Uzbekistan reported the export of gas to China for only 39.6 million dollars, but the Chinese side announced the import of Uzbek gas for 114.2 million dollars (a difference almost 3 times).
In response, Uzbekistan’s Energy Minister Jurabek Mirzamahmudov informed that China includes in its statistics the cost of Turkmen gas transit services through Uzbekistan.
“Gazeta.uz” compared the data and found that the big difference remains even taking into account the cost of transit.
The Presidential Statistics Agency (formerly Goskomstat) has never disclosed the structure of foreign trade services to Uzbekistan, so it is impossible to say exactly how much Uzbekistan receives for gas transit from Turkmenistan to China. Transit is provided by the company Asia Trans Gas, founded in 2008 by “Uzbekneftegazom” and Trans-Asia Gas Pipeline Company (TAPLine, a subsidiary of the Chinese state company CNPC) with equal shares of 50% each.
According to the agency, Uzbekistan did not export gas in December, but China reported imports of $40.1 million. If the data is correct, then 40.1 million dollars will be considered the amount for the transit of Turkmen gas. Turkmenistan exported gas worth $975.6 million in December.
Based on these data, “Gazeta.uz” calculated the approximate cost of transit for each month and compared the data.
Taking into account the cost of transit, the data from the PRC should always be higher, but in 5 out of 12 months (February, March, April, July and August) the export statistics to Uzbekistan exceed data from the Chinese side, although Turkmenistan has not suspended deliveries. The difference ranges from 0.1 to 64.9 million dollars.
If you look at the positive difference (China’s data is higher than Uzbekistan’s), you can see the amount from $14.8 million to $74.6 million.
The total amount of all differences per year is $387.4 million. According to Gazety.uz, Uzbekistan received about $400 million for gas transit in 2022.
If we subtract the approximate cost of the transit service, the data for the PRC and Uzbekistan should be close, however, even here there are large discrepancies in the statistics – from -0.76 million to 66.89 millions of dollars.
The data can be influenced by the price factor, i.e. the gas price can change every month. It is not known at what price Turkmenistan sells gas to China. To take this factor into account, it is possible to try to use the prices at which Uzbekistan buys Turkmen gas. In particular, Turkmenistan supplied gas in February, March, May, June and November (Gazety.uz only has data for 11 months, excluding December). The cost of 1000 cubic meters was 117, 112, 204, 115 and 131.6 dollars respectively.
If you use it to compare the prices of February (117), March (112) and June (115), then the difference between these months, taking into account the transit in the table above, should be minimal, but the numbers are very different.
This data may indicate further export of blue fuel. According to Gazety.uz sources, in July 2022, one of Uzbekistan’s private companies was granted the exclusive right to export gas. In particular, in December, exports from Uzbekistan continued, despite assurances from the authorities regarding the reduction or suspension of supplies.
In December and January, an energy crisis occurred in Uzbekistan, linked to interruptions in the supply of gas, electricity and heating. Due to the decrease in gas pressure and fuel supply to the TPP, there were several hours of power outages. The boilers encountered a shortage of gas, due to which the heat transfer output decreased. This, in turn, led to an increase in electricity consumption. As a result, there have been accidents in transformer stations and transmission lines, and thermal power stations, which run 85% on gas and produce around 90% of all the country’s electricity, could not generate additional electricity.
President Shavkat Mirziyoyev previously criticized Energy Minister Zhurabeka Mirzamakhmudova for authorizing the reduction of gas production by foreign companies to 1.5 billion cubic meters in 2022, following which the population did not not been supplied with 20% of the annual gas consumption.