The American Stratfor Center for Strategic and Security Studies put forward 4 scenarios for the development of the war in Sudan between the army and the Rapid Support Forces, which is entering its second week, suggesting a scenario of continued intense fighting in the main cities, although the temporary pause may allow the evacuation of foreign nationals. In its assessment of the current events, the American Center indicated that the situation in Khartoum, Omdurman and other cities across Sudan is still volatile and developing rapidly, adding that this has prompted foreign governments and humanitarian organizations to prepare for many possible scenarios in the coming days and weeks. It seems that the most likely scenario is the continuation of intense urban warfare, although the increasing pressure from the United States, Saudi Arabia and others may lead to a short halt to the evacuation, according to the American Center, which pointed out that the fighting may develop in the coming days and weeks, setting at least 4 different scenarios. The developments of the conflict include: The first most likely scenario is that the armed forces and/or the Rapid Support Forces agree to a cease-fire on a regular basis, but sporadic fighting will continue in urban centers. The Center believes that it is unlikely that a permanent or indefinite ceasefire will be reached, but international pressure to allow evacuations may prompt one or both of the warring parties to stop the fighting for a short period. The report claims that opposition and divisions within the Sudanese army are major constraints even on temporary truces to provide people in combat zones with humanitarian supplies and medical care, as “hard-liners” in the armed forces are calling for a complete victory over the “rapid support” forces. The second possible scenario is the continuation of violent fighting in cities without a cease-fire, “in light of the relatively equal capabilities of the Sudanese Armed Forces and the Rapid Support Forces in terms of the number of personnel and equipment.” There is a risk that countries in the region may begin to provide their “favored side” in the conflict with money, weapons and other forms of military support. Stratfor added in its assessment that the RSF is already reportedly receiving support from Russian mercenaries (Wagner), which is likely to prolong the fighting in Khartoum. The third scenario, which the report describes as somewhat likely, is that one of the two sides will defeat the other, forcing the latter to seek refuge in rural areas in remote parts of the country. The fourth scenario, which is an unlikely possibility, according to the assessment, is that the army and the “rapid support” will agree to a permanent ceasefire, “but the risk of violence erupting in the future remains.” The American Center believes that there is a chance – albeit a very small one – that international pressure (especially Arab) will give way to an unlimited ceasefire between the warring parties in the coming days or weeks.
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