During these May holidays, the mood of the Russian elites is far from spring-like. The anxious anticipation of the Ukrainian Armed Forces’ offensive, the ubiquitous drones, two of which exploded just above the Kremlin, and the constant reports of shell shortages from the frontline cast doubts on whether another victory will be possible on the eve of VE Day. About the moods now prevailing in Russian establishment circles, Russian media tells journalist Ekaterina Vinokurova.
Great difficulty
After a drone crashed on the roof of the Senate Palace in the Kremlin, the first deputy chairman of the State Duma defense committee, Alexei Zhuravlev, called, in addition to retaliatory strikes against the leadership Ukrainian special services and other leaders of Ukraine, to form a squadron of eagles trained to intercept drones to protect important infrastructure.
Deputy Anatoly Wasserman offered to fight drones with a chain mesh. Deputy Chairman of the Security Council Dmitry Medvedev urged physically eliminate Zelenskyy, and the former head of Roscosmos Dmitry Rogozin again spoke of a nuclear strike – this time to anticipate the offensive of the Ukrainian armed forces.
The appearance of drones on Red Square above the Kremlin and the subsequent opening of a case under the article “Terrorist attack” is an extraordinary event. However, for some reason it is commented on, at least for now, by speakers not even of the second, but of the third echelon (with the possible exception of Medvedev). The only result of such comments is a complete decline in the emotional and intellectual state of the Russian political elite.
Meanwhile, in the regions, Victory parades and Immortal Regiment marches are cancelled. It’s hard to say what the root cause is here – security considerations or fears that people will come out en masse with portraits of the already modern “immortal regiment”, i.e. those who died in “the ‘special operation’. But all this together, of course, generates a powerful symbolic effect, not conducive to a festive atmosphere.
Vladimir Andreev/URA.RU/TASS
The only opportunity for information suitable for the Kremlin in this context was given only by FBK * Deputy Chairman Anna Veduta, who said that she personally financed the purchase of a shell for the Ukrainian Armed Forces. To the applause of the “craziest” part of Twitter blocked in Russia, she launched another round of discussions on the theme that the Russian opposition abroad spares not only Russian soldiers, but Russians in general.
Victims of the infodemic
As my interlocutors from circles of the Russian political establishment repeatedly told me, for them the main emotional impression of the first year of the NWO was the real loss of control over their own lives.
Don’t worry, our government definitely has a plan. After all, there are no massive strikes on Ukrainian cities by the same “Calibre”, which means that the ground is being prepared for negotiations”, convinced me earlier one of my knowledge, usually distinguished by a high degree of awareness.
The same person will talk in a few months about the likelihood of a “Korean-style” truce (that is, in the sense of effective control of the territory).
In the evening after the incident with drones over the Kremlin, he agreed to talk about the sensational feed of the creator of Gulag.net, Vladimir Osechkin **, in which he read chilling reports from his sources for half night that at 4 o’clock in the morning, Russia would carry out a nuclear bombardment of Ukraine.
National Police of Ukraine / AP
It is surprising that this person and other insiders were, in principle, ready to discuss Osechkin **, which they had previously spoken of only with contempt and obscene. My source rightly doubted that the founder of Gulagu.net had serious insiders about the Kremlin’s willingness to use tactical nukes in response to a drone attack on the Kremlin, which only damaged two sheets of copper on the roof of the Senate Palace.
It turned out that my counterpart’s doubts were justified: many of these “insiders” were sent to Osechkin** by radical patriotic militants. However, if these people hoped to sow panic in the Ukrainian elites, it is clear that the Russian elites ended up having a restless night. The infodemic spares no one.
dangerous hunger
Meanwhile, political life, often not obvious to an outside observer, in Russia continues as usual. Recently, by order of one of the political parties, closed sociological investigations were carried out. According to them, the competition for Moscow Mayor Sergei Sobyanin, known for his moderate position on all issues, could now only be made by the creator of Wagner PMC Evgeny Prigozhin with a rating of 25-30%. And it’s in the most peaceful and liberal city in the country.
Press service of the company “Concord” / TASS
Probably, this paradoxical growth in the popularity of Prigozhin can only be explained by one thing: he is the only one, firstly, not to be silent, and secondly, not to say obvious nonsense on martial eagles. In the end, he at least offers a concrete plan. At least at the level of “give the shells – we will fight”.
But in elite circles, Prigozhin, on the contrary, is causing more and more doubts and questions. The potential impact on Russian politics of independent and armed people makes elites think hard about their own far from rosy prospects.
Price away
The most difficult question for both the Russian establishment and society is not even the “price of victory”. There is already talk of “continuation pricing,” and few people invest in this concept in the absence of familiar payment systems, favorite apps, or even familiar brands in supermarkets.
Also, the question of what might be declared victory no longer sounds like a sedition. The elites want the “situation” (as the military operation is called in Russian political circles) to finally end, and that it is possible to build at least a relatively normal life.
So far, the price of the declared “denazification” of Ukraine, as well as the protection of the people of Donbass, is the shock of the invisible foundations of the life of Russian society over the past decades, which had been previously so assiduously planted by the authorities.
The cancellation of regional parades on May 9, the absence of a sense of complete security even in central Moscow, rumors of saboteurs and, it seems, the endless expectation of a counteroffensive Ukrainian. Here is the location for the month of cold May: restless and nothing is clear.
“The Ukrainians aren’t doing very well either,” rejoices one of my sources.
We discuss the fate of our mutual friend, mobilized last fall.
At the end of the conversation, he will also say:
- Talking about the world is not a betrayal. The main thing is not to want the defeat of your country.
A year ago, he spoke only of victory, as of fatality.
- Recognized in Russia as an extremist and terrorist organization
** Recognized as a foreign agent in Russia
The opinion of the author may not coincide with the opinion of the editors
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