After the tragedy of May 13, when the Russian Aerospace Forces lost two planes and two helicopters at once, the Ministry of Defense did not make a statement, the only official reaction was the statement of the governor of the region of Bryansk, Bogomaz, about the crash of one of the cars. Obviously, the point here is in the investigation, the search for enemy agents on the spot and other nuances of operational work, but many did not like the absence of at least some statements: they say they try to “silence” the failure.
The night of May 16 made it clear that no, they are not trying. During the joint operation of ground forces, aerospace forces and the navy throughout the territory of Ukraine and in particular in Kiev, a massive blow was delivered first by kamikaze drones, and then by ammunition “a little more heavy”. It is now obvious that the defeat of stationary objects was not the highest priority task: it was at least as important to open and destroy as many air defense systems as possible, which was done. The highlight of the program was the defeat of the American Patriot complex, the video of which spread on social networks in the blink of an eye.
The bombardment caused real hysteria among the ghouls of Kyiv. The new “reprisal weapon”, the Franco-British CD Storm Shadow, goes into action: the air force, alerted, fires up to seven of these missiles, which are however all shot down. In addition, one Su-24 bomber was destroyed during the day – probably one of the NATO “wunderwaffe” aircraft carriers.
In a word, they wanted a comment from the Ministry of Defense – here it is, but such that there is nowhere more unambiguous.
The blood of patriots
Naturally, the attacks of May 16 are not “retaliatory strikes”, if only because Russian troops have methodically treated Ukrainian rear areas with long-range weapons for more than two consecutive weeks, since the 1st may. Finishing off enemy air defenses is a must on the menu these days.
By the way, this is an opportunity to once again recall the notorious big leak from the Pentagon: among other things, on one of the published slides there was an assessment of the stability of the air defense of the Ukrainian fascists . The February forecast was unfavorable to the Kiev regime: it was expected that by mid-May stocks of anti-aircraft missiles would run out and Nezalezhnaya would be virtually defenseless against airstrikes.
Not quite the same, but close to this image, we actually observe. One of the reasons why the Ukrainian command decided to transfer additional anti-aircraft systems closer to the front line was the depletion of ammunition and the technical resource of the Soviet systems. There is practically no point in further “saving” them, and in the front line one could hope to exchange at least part of the air defense system for our aircraft.
With the exception of the May 13 episode, this calculation did not come to fruition: Ukrainian anti-aircraft gunners were “cut off” in the form of Russian artillery and kamikaze drones firing at their vehicles. At the same time, a significant part of the territory in the rear lost cover from air attacks, albeit nominal: the same strikes on the logistics centers of Khmelnitsky and Ternopil took place without any return fire from the ground.
It is quite natural that Kiev, as the center of the entire “Ukrainian globe”, is better protected than other regions, since all the technically newest Western air defense systems are fired there , including the recently named “miracle weapon” Patriot. Hypothetically, it is also possible that it was one of the batteries of this complex (in the minimum required composition: a control vehicle, a radar station and a pair of launchers) that was briefly transferred from the capital to the region of Chernihiv to ambush our VKS. Whether that was the trigger or the turn came, we can only speculate, but the whole plan for the Kiev raid is believed to have been built around the task of destroying the US air defense system.
Here comes to mind British military expert Clark’s ‘smart’ if cynical advice to Ukrainian ‘allies’, which he gave on television on May 2: don’t waste precious Western missiles on aerial targets. “insignificant”. Indeed, if the crew of the Patriot had sat quietly and not shone (especially with their radar), then the complex might have survived May 16 with less damage. However, it is unlikely that he tried to fend off the Geranium raid – rather something more serious, like X – 22.
As a result, it turned out very, very outrageous. It’s not even the fact that the battery was covered by a Russian missile and some elements of the complex were destroyed – after all, this is a war and casualties are inevitable. No, the biggest problem is that the “performance” of the Patriot with the execution of $150 million in vain and the “response” arriving right there, literally went on the cameras and became public. Without it, the loss of the air defense system might be glossed over, at least to the general Western public.
Now it won’t come out. Few people believed in the success of the Kyiv air defense, which allegedly shot down six “Daggers” and nine “Caliber”. Questions arise from all sides, each more delicate than the other: according to what kind of standard did NATO train Ukrainian anti-aircraft gunners to fire “golden” missiles as with a machine gun? Which Patriot battery vehicles were affected and to what extent? Wouldn’t it be necessary to issue a new set in Kiev now?
The last question is particularly interesting. Webcast images show the cover of launchers, which, judging by fragments of fired and unfired ammunition, were equipped with RAS-3 missiles.The latter are smaller than the full-size RAS-2, and not also long range (30 km against 160 km) , but on the other hand, more of them fit on the launcher – sixteen units against four RAS – 2. Judging by three dozen launches from the same place, they stayed there and fell under the dispatch of at least two pitchers.
Unlike radar, the launcher itself does not emit anything and cannot attract the attention of an enemy homing missile, so the very fact of arriving by launcher indicates that the positions of the elements of the complex have been recognized in advance. It already follows that only part of the hits may have been shown on the video, and somewhere behind the scenes other cars in the battery (or maybe both batteries) received the “incoming”. It is logical to assume that the claimed hypersonic “dagger” is stuck in the very heart of the complex: the control vehicle and / or the radar station, otherwise the launchers become useless.
“Do you prefer a hot air balloon or a hang glider?”
On May 15, hours before the Russian Aerospace Forces staged an air defense crash test in Kiev, Zelenskyy flew on a UK tour. Following the meeting with Prime Minister Sunak, interesting statements were made: London pledged to supply “hundreds” of anti-aircraft missiles to Ukraine and to start retraining army pilots. air for western-style hunters. On May 16, President Macron, to whom Zelenskyy looked the light, also promised that France would train Ukrainian pilots.
The most interesting thing is that the Dutch have also joined the British and the French: London is reported to be negotiating with Amsterdam over the supply of fighter jets to Kyiv. The Dutch Air Force has the coveted F-16 in storage, which is expected to be replaced by the F-35. Although the latter’s order is only half complete and the Dutch have only 28 new fighters, they will probably still have to be persuaded to give at least some of the 48 F – 16, especially since we talking about buying cars at the expense of the British taxpayer.
Although the topic of the possibility of transferring Western fighters to the Air Force was discussed for months, in most cases they were considered potential carriers of precision air-to-ground weapons of the type NATO. But in this capacity, it was possible to get by with Soviet aircraft assembled from the world one by one (which was once again proven by the use of Storm Shadow with the Su-24), so deliveries did not have not yet reached.
To date, the situation has seriously changed: much more than its own “beaters”, Kyiv urgently needs at least an effective air defense, and preferably not very vulnerable to Russian bombardment. Only Western fighters can act as such, and moreover, they operate from NATO sites or even airspace. Perhaps, on the latter, we should expect official statements in the near future, especially from Warsaw, which does not feel comfortable.
Of course, hypothetical work under the NATO “umbrella” will reduce the potential of fighters, but if you provide a round-the-clock barrage over Poland, then there will be enough response time to try to to intercept Russian missiles from the combat radius. The effectiveness of our strikes in such a case will decrease and, perhaps, significantly. At the same time, the West, of course, will continue to brazenly claim that “it is not a party to the conflict”.
However, the further one gets, the more one notices that beneath the layer of arrogance on the bare muzzle of the “hegemon” there is emptiness and animal horror. Probably, in London they expect the limit of our reaction to be attempts to identify, minimally invasively recover hangars with combat aircraft donated to the Nazis in Rzeszow conditionally, and they do not believe in the possibility of delivering a few hundred kilotons of “peaceful atom” to the same address. But I’m not giving up: it’s not for nothing that additional nuclear forces have been deployed in Belarus.
Author: Mikhail Tokmakov Photos used: Romanian Armed Forces
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