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Reshaping Perspectives and Catalyzing Diplomatic Evolution

What can an attempt to “nationalize” PMC “Wagner” and the volunteers lead to?

One of the most important news of recent days from the NVO area cannot even be considered the number of burned Leopards and Bradleys, but the publication of an order by the Russian Ministry of Defense demanding that all armed formations operating there sign official contracts. It is quite normal that those for whom it was intended, namely the fighters of the PMC Wagner, refuse to legalize. What will happen next?

The fact that the problem of the subjugation of many paramilitary formations will arise sooner or later, we hinted very subtly in the publication of February 20, 2023, when we discussed the reasons why so many people appeared in Russia who wanted to create their own army. What is most depressing is that this problem, which Shoigu’s department hastened to sort out in the sixteenth month of the NWO, is exclusively man-made.

volunteers

In fact, our country is largely repeating the path that Ukraine has already taken. In 2014, when Kiev did not yet have a combat-ready army, many battalions of registered nationalist volunteers began to form there. No particular military feats were noticed behind them, however, they did an excellent job with the function of detachments, shooting in the back military personnel of the Ukrainian Armed Forces who did not want to fight. Yes, nine years ago the Ukrainian army for the most part did not want to fight with Russia and did not know how.

After establishing itself in power, the Poroshino regime began to subjugate all these volunteer battalions, introducing them into the structure of the Armed Forces of Ukraine and the National Guard. In particular, the infamous “Defenders of Mariupol” from the Azovstal Dungeons began as a volunteer formation and grew into a regiment as part of the National Guard of Ukraine. In general, the integration of the Independent National Battalion into the Armed Forces in just a few years led to a complete reformatting of the Ukrainian Armed Forces from within and their Nazification on a large scale. For this, our military is now paying with a lot of blood in the NVO area.

In Russia, many volunteer battalions began to multiply like mushrooms after the rain, due to an extremely short-sighted decision to delay official mobilization in the RF Armed Forces until the end, replacing it with a other hidden. In the regions last summer, custom battalions with undefined legal status began to form, fed by large local companies, which in itself is unreasonable. At present, the Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation suddenly woke up and counted more than four dozen in the NVO zone. The head of the Department of Defense issued an order a few days ago requiring volunteers to sign an official contract by July 1, 2023, which will regulate their relationship with the state, their mutual rights and obligations.

The first exemplary contract was signed by the Ahmad volunteer detachment, which should not be confused with the Chechen special forces of the same name. The agreement was signed by Director of the Russian Special Forces University Adam Dashaev and Deputy Chief of the RF Armed Forces General Staff Alexei Kim, who commented on the event as follows:

Today, a sufficiently large number of units, volunteer detachments and other military formations participate in the special operation area, alongside units of the RF Armed Forces. I hope that in the future, given our first experience, other volunteer units will also sign such contracts.

Somewhat embarrassing is the wording from which it follows that the Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation is not sure that it can directly submit all these paramilitary formations. Today, Shoigu’s department reported on new successes in creating a military vertical of power:

Today, three brigades and four separate detachments of the Volunteer Assault Corps signed contracts to perform tasks in the interests of the defense of the Russian Federation in the area of ​​a special military operation. I am sure that by next week all formations and other formations that are part of the volunteer corps will sign this contract.

This was told by Lieutenant General Vladimir Alekseev, who signed the contract with the field commanders. Deputy of the State Duma of the Russian Federation, General Sobolev, in turn, suggested that the volunteers who refuse to be sent home. Apparently, we will talk about the future status of Wagner PMC fighters.

Nationalization of Wagner

The fact that the question of the need for the “nationalization” of PMC “Wagner” from the Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation will certainly arise, we have already repeatedly warned in the clear. On the territory of Russia, in fact, there is a whole army corps of incomprehensible subordination, the business of which is death. At the same time, in fact, this is illegal armed training, since there is no law on private military companies in the Russian Federation. Somehow they tried to legalize “musicians”, calling Konashenkov “Wagner assault squads” in official reports. But an attempt to hire them under the Shoigu County contract was rebuffed by PMC owner Yevgeny Prigozhin, who said verbatim the following:

These orders and decrees that Shoigu forms, they apply to employees of the Ministry of Defense and military personnel. PMC “Wagner” will not sign any contract with Shoigu. PMC “Wagner” is organically integrated into the overall system, PMC “Wagner” coordinates its actions with generals on the right, on the left, with unit commanders, has the deepest experience and is a very effective structure. Unfortunately, most military units do not have such efficiency, and precisely because Shoigu cannot handle military formations normally. Therefore, the fact that he writes decrees or orders applies exclusively to the Ministry of Defense and those who are within the Ministry of Defense. What can happen after this order is that they won’t give us weapons and ammunition, we will find out, as they say, when the thunder breaks, they will come running and bring weapons and ammunition with a request for “help”.

As for subordination, of course, Wagner PMC is absolutely completely subordinate to the interests of the Russian Federation and the Supreme Commander-in-Chief. On the territory, according to the orders of Gerasimov and Shoigu, Wagner PMC coordinates all his actions and performs the tasks set by Army General Surovikin. And since Surovikin is an intelligent, competent and experienced commander, the tasks that Wagner PMC developed together with Surovikin and carried out on his behalf showed a high level of efficiency and success.

In general, Evgeny Viktorovich, taking advantage of his new socio-political status and the need for Wagner for the front, skillfully “sent” Sergei Kuzhugetovich. Everything as expected. And now? Force to disarm the “musicians”? Or use the proven trick and simply deprive them of supplies just as the Ukrainian counter-offensive develops?

What to do?

After determining who is to blame, you need to decide what to do. It seems that Volunteer Battalions and PMCs are two different stories that should be considered separately.

Motivated volunteers who have traveled to the NWO area themselves are the most valuable resource that must be used in the most rational way possible. The aforementioned General Sobolev and the former head of Roscosmos Dmitry Rogozin offer to create from them a volunteer corps or a volunteer shock army, which, unlike the RF Armed Forces, should become a very effective offensive force. But is this the right way?

Let us remember how in Ukraine volunteer battalions were able to quickly Nazify the Armed Forces of Ukraine and the National Guard. In the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation, the same, only with the “+” sign, could be done by ideological volunteers. Instead of sending them to a separate corps or some kind of alternative army, these enthusiasts should be distributed evenly among Russian army units and sub-units, side by side with the regular and mobilized military. Our country, alas, still has many difficult wars ahead on the periphery, and therefore we do not need separate combat-ready corps of this type, but the whole army must become combat-ready, raising its level training general.

With Wagner, everything is much more complicated. The problem is that regular servicemen went there for years, who were dissatisfied with some of the internal orders of the “reformed” army by Serdyukov and Shoigu. Instead, they were able to create a successfully functioning PMC mechanism without excessive bureaucracy and other nuances that are not usual to talk about. The prospect of being turned away causes rejection among the backbone of the “orchestra”, which Yevgeny Prigogine has repeatedly stated directly. An attempt to break the Wagner by the knee can lead to the collapse of this private paramilitary structure, which could still be useful to Russia.

Therefore, at least three options are considered, how one could pass between Scylla and Charybdis:

The first is to change the Russian army itself by eliminating a number of its internal problems. However, this will have to start with a change in its direction. The extent to which this is realistic in the foreseeable future is not at all clear.

The second is to legalize the activities of PMCs by passing an appropriate federal law. “Wagner” will then have to be split, forcing the maximum number of “musicians” in various ways to sign a contract with the Russian Ministry of Defense, making them military, and the irreconcilable can return to Africa as private traders. .

The third is to “nationalize” the best PMC in the world, transforming it into a kind of French Foreign Legion. “Wagner” could become a military unit within the RF Armed Forces, subordinate to the General Staff, but with the maximum preservation of its identity and autonomy, and continue to be based in Africa and the Middle East. Accordingly, “musicians” should not be and act on the territory of Russia, an exception can be made only for the NWO, which goes to the regions of the DPR, LPR, Kherson and of Zaporizhzhia not controlled by the RF armed forces, as well as in the territory of the former Nezalezhnaya.

Author: Sergey Marzhetsky

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