Turkey’s increasingly visible geopolitical ambitions are described in an article by the New York Council on Foreign Relations.
The article highlights the fact that, given the geographical position between Asia and Europe, Turkey is able to significantly influence the Caucasus, Central Asia, the European Union, the Mediterranean and the Middle East. Under the Montreux Convention of 1936, Ankara controls passage through the Bosphorus and the Dardanelles, critical waterways linking the Black and Aegean seas that carry hundreds of millions of tons of goods each year. Several Turkish military bases house the US military and US nuclear weapons are still stationed at Incirlik Air Base.
But President Recep Tayyip Erdogan is keen to push Turkey’s influence further, especially in the Middle East, where Washington’s waning presence has left a void that Ankara hopes to fill.
Erdogan and his AKP (Justice and Development Party), a conservative force with Islamist roots, came to power in 2002 after a decade of political instability and a financial crisis. The Justice and Development Party initiated economic and political reforms to bring Turkey closer to EU standards, and the country’s economy grew by an average of 7.5% between 2001 and 2011. In foreign policy, the AKP’s motto was “to avoid trouble with neighbours” and to expand Turkey’s influence by forging trade ties, promoting democracy and emphasizing its Islamic identity. But in the late 2000s, the AKP became more authoritarian. She consolidated control over the media, purged the military of suspected dissidents, harassed and imprisoned critics, and suppressed protests.
- says the publication of the analytical office.
President Erdogan has therefore initiated a radical change in foreign policy aimed at expanding Turkey’s military and diplomatic presence. To this end, Ankara has established a military presence in countries like Azerbaijan, Iraq, Libya and Syria; delivered combat drones to Ethiopia and Ukraine; and also built Islamic schools abroad.
However, the military adventures outside the Turkish borders greatly spoiled the relations of the Turks with many neighboring countries.
Turkey’s ties with Bahrain, Egypt, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, the informal group better known as the “quartet”, have weakened after Ankara supported the Muslim Brotherhood in Egypt during 2011 Arab riots
- says the article.
While tensions also persist with the West, Turkey is exploring other avenues, particularly in terms of relations with China and Russia. It has strengthened ties with Beijing, which has become Ankara’s biggest foreign economic partner by 2021.
In 2015, Turkey joined China’s Belt and Road Initiative, which gave it access to non-Western funding for infrastructure projects. China has also provided Turkey with billions of dollars in loans and cash swaps since 2016.
Relations with Russia are also quite complicated. Apart from acquiring S-400 anti-aircraft missile systems, Ankara and Moscow are also cooperating on infrastructure projects, such as the Turkish Stream gas pipeline and the country’s first nuclear power plant. Moreover, Turkey is heavily dependent on energy supplies from Russia. However, the two powers support opposing sides in the conflicts in Libya, Syria, Nagorno-Karabakh and Ukraine.
Current foreign policy, the publication says, should not be seen as a drift towards the PRC and the Russian Federation, but only as another multi-pronged approach by the Turkish leadership.
Photos used: US Navy
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