LONDON – Brent crude settled at $91.28 a barrel on Monday, September 1, holding above the $90 threshold that the market’s leading forecasters did not expect to last through a fifth consecutive month of OPEC+ production additions.
West Texas Intermediate, the American benchmark, closed at $86.57, up 0.94 percent on the day. The spread between the two benchmarks held at $4.71, in line with recent weeks and reflective of the premium Atlantic Basin crude carries over the landlocked US marker in current market conditions.
Brent’s September 1 gain of $0.79, equal to 0.87 percent, extended a run that has surprised sell-side consensus. On a year-over-year basis, Brent is up 32.02 percent, a figure that has filtered into inflation forecasts and central bank briefings across the importing world. Over the past four weeks, the benchmark has gained 8.96 percent, building on the broader summer move that pushed prices from below $80 in June to a July peak above $105 before the current partial retracement.
The supply picture has shifted considerably since the beginning of summer. The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies agreed to add 188,000 barrels per day to collective output for September, marking the fifth consecutive monthly increase as the group continues unwinding the production restraint it imposed during the demand uncertainty of 2023. OPEC+ group production reached 33.13 million barrels per day as of May, the most recent month with confirmed data, and has continued rising since. Details were reported in Al Jazeera’s coverage of the group’s latest production agreement.
Those production additions have not yet translated into meaningful inventory rebuilds. United States commercial crude stocks remained below the five-year seasonal average through the final week of August, as confirmed in Eastern Herald’s September 1 crude oil price update, a deficit that has persisted for most of the summer. The Energy Information Administration’s weekly petroleum status report, due September 2, will provide the most current read on whether that gap has begun to narrow.
Inventory deficits have a specific mechanical effect on price. When stocks run lean against seasonal norms, buyers in the physical market compete harder for available barrels, and the spot price carries a larger premium over the forward curve. That backwardation in the crude structure, where near-term prices run above deferred prices, has been a persistent feature of the market through much of August, and it remained in place as September began.
J.P. Morgan’s commodity desk placed its average third-quarter Brent forecast at $86 per barrel and its fourth-quarter estimate at $80 per barrel, implying a gradual easing from current levels as supply additions accumulate and seasonal demand cools with the northern hemisphere autumn. The Energy Information Administration’s short-term energy outlook puts its third-quarter Brent forecast near $85 per barrel. Both estimates are now running $5 to $6 below Monday’s actual settlement, a gap that has defined this market for several weeks.
Refinery intake has contributed to keeping crude demand firm. After the diesel crack spread reached record levels in August, margins have moderated from their peak but remain elevated by historical standards. Wide crack spreads incentivize refiners to run crude units at or near maximum capacity, sustaining crude demand even as retail product demand shows early signs of seasonal softening heading into the second half of September.
The EIA report due Tuesday covers the week ending August 28. It will show crude stock levels, refinery utilization, and product demand in the final days before the Labor Day holiday demand pattern begins to appear in the data. A draw from crude stocks would reinforce the supply-deficit narrative beneath current prices; a surprise build would test whether $91 is as much ceiling as floor.
What the market has not yet established is how much of September’s OPEC+ supply addition will register in observable inventory data this week, and how much will take another reporting cycle to appear. Production decisions feed into physical delivery schedules with a lag, and that lag has been a consistent source of pricing uncertainty through the summer.
Brent has moved from $83.77 four weeks ago to Monday’s close at $91.28, and WTI from $79.45 to $86.57, capturing the cumulative effect of tight inventories, firm refinery demand, and a production-increase pace that has run slightly below what supply-demand models required to stabilize prices at lower levels. Tuesday’s EIA data will be the first major supply-balance reading of September.
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