Bolsonaro’s Son Upends Brazil Vote, Forcing Lula Into a Runoff

BRASILIA — Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva told supporters on Sunday night that he had been convinced he would win the presidency outright. He did not, and the man who stopped him is the 45-year-old son of Brazil’s jailed former president.

Senator Flávio Bolsonaro finished first in the October 4 vote with roughly 47 percent of valid ballots to Lula’s 45 percent, NPR reported from the electoral court’s count. Neither cleared the 50 percent line, so the two meet again in the Brazil runoff on October 25. By Bloomberg’s tally of court data, the gap was about 2.2 million votes.

The count moved all night. With roughly 85 percent of ballots reported, Bolsonaro led by almost five points, NBC News reported; by the end his lead was under two. The shrinking margin is one reason the runoff looks wide open, with surveys showing the two men roughly even.

What made Sunday a shock was the polling. Surveys before the vote had consistently put the 80-year-old incumbent ahead, and Lula, who is seeking a fourth non-consecutive term, said afterward that he had not expected the result. In remarks carried by Brazilian media, he added that he is good at knockout matches and that his campaign starts from scratch now that only two names remain.

For Flávio Bolsonaro, the night was a verdict on his family name as much as on the president. He called the result the end of the Workers’ Party era, and the Liberal Party’s showing in Congress gives the claim some weight: Fox News reported the party is expected to hold 29 Senate seats against nine for Lula’s party.

The first round played out against corruption scandals, deep polarization and what CNN described as growing voter fatigue. Brazil’s currency and stock market had already been rising on hopes for a business-friendly challenger, Reuters reported, and a first-place finish feeds that trade. In a social media post on Monday, Bolsonaro argued that his allies’ strength in Congress would restore the legal security the country needs to grow, a pitch aimed squarely at investors.

Washington is watching too. Bolsonaro is an ally of US President Donald Trump, and Lula spent the final weeks of the campaign accusing Trump of trying to colonize Brazil, a charge Eastern Herald reported on September 25.

The relationship has already been costly for Brazil. Trump imposed 25 percent tariffs on Brazil in July over a Big Tech dispute, and Lula vowed a fight at the World Trade Organization.

It has also turned personal. In August Trump revoked the Brazil ambassador’s visa amid an election-season standoff, and whether he will wade in again before October 25 is not clear.

Underneath it all sits the family story. Jair Bolsonaro was placed under house arrest in 2025 as Trump lashed out over his trial, and he is now jailed; his son is asking voters to carry the name back into the presidential palace. The winner takes office on January 5, 2027, ABC News reported.

Fewer than one in ten valid ballots went to the candidates now eliminated. The court’s numbers do not say where those voters go next, or whether Sunday was a ceiling for Bolsonaro or a floor.