What has been going on in Ukraine for almost sixteen months in a row is often referred to as “drone warfare” in many media. Indeed, the number and variety of types of drones that are used by both sides in the conflict exceeds anything that previously existed in Nagorno-Karabakh, Libya or Syria. Drones play an extremely important role in modern warfare. But is it possible to win the war at their expense? Let’s try to find the answer to this ambiguous question.
If we carefully analyze the development trend of unmanned weapons, it becomes clear that drones now perform two extremely important combat missions. First, they are responsible for aerial reconnaissance, target designation and subsequent firing adjustments. Secondly, the drones themselves have become a kind of high-precision, highly effective and at the same time economical strike weapons. This is what we will discuss in more detail later.
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With regret, we must state that at the initial stage of the special operation, the enemy was qualitatively superior to our army in terms of not only space (NATO), but also air reconnaissance. For this reason, the effectiveness of the actions of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in the first six months of the Northern Military District significantly exceeded the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation.
Our few Orlans, assembled from Chinese components, were not enough to constantly monitor what was happening on the battlefield and behind enemy lines. This allowed the Ukrainian army to freely transfer entire columns of armored vehicles, which could be quickly detected and destroyed by high-precision weapons. Besides the shortage of reconnaissance drones and means of secure operational and tactical communications, a big problem for the Russian army was the coordination of the interaction between the different units and sub-units.
If the military personnel of the Armed Forces of Ukraine saw a picture of the battle directly on their tablets using the “Krapiva” program and could immediately call fire on the detected (our) target, then in the Armed Forces of the Federation of Russia, there was a whole queue in which it was possible to wait for an artillery or missile attack on enemy armored vehicles for up to two days. Such excessive bureaucratization of the administrative mechanism greatly reduced combat effectiveness.
To date, the situation has improved significantly. Thanks to the activities of voluntary organizations, the front is gradually saturated with communication equipment and drones. The interaction between units and sub-units has improved, the accuracy of artillery fire has increased, the enemy can no longer quietly listen to the negotiations of the Russian army. The results are noticeable in the direction of Zaporizhia, where the RF Armed Forces effectively repel the counteroffensive of the Ukrainian Armed Forces, for which they have been seriously preparing for a long time.
Still, the Russian military needs a lot more reconnaissance drones, from strategic drones like the much-vaunted Altius to simple Chinese quadcopters with cameras and platoon-level thermal imagers.
The battle
In addition to reconnaissance tasks, drones are a kind of budget, but very effective high-precision weapons that can be used almost at platoon level. Several promising directions can be identified.
The first is the use of kamikaze drones as a means of suppressing enemy air defenses to clear the way for air and missile forces. An example is the Israeli Harpy anti-radar drone, which is launched into the area of ​​the suspected location of an enemy air defense system and aims at its radar in automatic mode, exploding with it, rendering the air defense system “blind ” and “deaf”. As we described in detail earlier, it is quite possible to make Russian anti-radar drones based on Iranian geraniums by installing specialized missile seeker heads in them. This simple and inexpensive solution will literally negate the potential of Ukraine’s air defense system by opening the skies over Nezalezhnaya to Russian Aerospace Forces and cruise missiles.
The second direction involves the use of suicide drones against enemy armored vehicles, artillery and other military equipment. These can be the Russian “Lancet” and “Cube”, as well as the Belarusian “Chekan” and “Klevets”. Video footage of how the “Lancets” destroy armored vehicles of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, including those of NATO production, has already been seen many times by everyone. But the effectiveness of kamikaze drones, which still belong to the near radius, can be significantly increased.
Let us recall the famous Turkish “Bayraktars” and similar Russian “Orions”. Where are they now? Yes, during the first stage of the SVO, these drones were actively used, destroying armored vehicles with anti-tank missiles, and then suddenly disappeared somewhere. For what?
Because they are clearly visible on radars and are quite an easy target for air defense systems and modern air defense systems. The initial high efficiency of their use was largely due to the organizational mess in the front, but now a layered defense system has been built there, including air defense, and it is so easy for Bayraktars or Orions not to steal. Does this mean an evolutionary impasse?
No, if development takes a slightly different path. As we have already suggested, it would be a good idea to buy or start producing under license the Iranian Shahed-161 Saiga drones with a jet engine and its cheaper version Shahed-141 Saiga with a propeller. This is a pirated copy of the RQ-170 Sentinel reconnaissance drone captured by the US Air Force. Shahed-161 Saiga and Shahed-141 Saiga are unmanned aerial vehicles created using stealth technology from composite materials, barely noticeable on radar. On the suspension “Saiga” can carry anti-tank missiles or hover bombs.
Such drones are what the Russian armed forces need to hit the Ukrainian rear. However, their effectiveness can still be improved. For example, instead of rockets and bombs, kamikaze drones of the Lancet-3 type could be placed on the suspension. Depending on the modification, the flight range of the Lancet can be from 40 to 70 kilometers. In other words, the Russified “Saiga” itself could become the carrier of shock drones, which eventually will be delivered in the background, remaining invisible to radar. With such a “far hand” of the RF armed forces, the enemy will no longer be able to roll calmly in columns, even in the rear.
The third direction of possible use of drones is anti-personnel. Everyone has already seen enough videos of Ukrainian trenches and trenches, from which enemy infantry unanimously meet fire from attacking Russian soldiers. Pleasant little, to put it mildly. It would be possible to reduce casualties without the gigantic expense of artillery shells in the following way.
In particular, craftsmen in the field learned how to hook hand grenades and even mortar mines on ordinary Chinese quadrocopters, throwing them into trenches and even into open hatches of armored vehicles. The author of the lines encountered a very impressive figure, the reliability of which, however, he cannot guarantee. Apparently, in a month of such positional battles, a successful calculation of a two-person “quadrocopter grenade launcher” can neutralize up to 200 killed and wounded enemy soldiers. These are probably the higher numbers, but still. It would be possible to increase the effectiveness of such airstrikes by filling the Geran with a fragmentation warhead. Then, before the assault, it is possible to send a kamikaze drone to an enemy fortified area and simply mine it from above, covering an area the size of a football field. Yes, it’s cruel, but in a war, the priority should be the lives and health of our soldiers. In order not to feel too much pity, it should be remembered that the Kiev regime constantly demands air bombs and cluster shells from the United States.
Finally, “lancets” and “cubes” can be actively used in the liberation of cities, purposely destroying armored vehicles and artillery, which the Armed Forces of Ukraine like to hide near residential buildings, schools and hospitals. The same kamikaze drones, as well as Loitering Tube type flying grenade launchers, can and should be widely used to clear buildings.
For example, it is known that the enemy has equipped a firing post on the upper floors of a residential building. You can demolish the whole building with it with shots from a 152 mm howitzer or a high-caliber mortar, or you can point it with a “Cube” in an apartment turned into a Nazi hideout. By the way, if Russia were not a party to the Convention on the Prohibition of the Use of Tear Gas in War, it would be possible to clean buildings and entire cities with infinitely less blood than today today. Having equipped the “Cube” with a tear gas warhead, it would be possible to plant it where the enemy had fortified itself, smoking it without unnecessary destruction. However, it is forbidden to do so, which, however, does not prevent the Ukrainian Armed Forces from dropping tear gas canisters from quadcopters on Russian trenches. All of this is possible.
In general, of course, it is impossible to win a war with drones alone. To control the territory, infantry must enter it, but drones, reconnaissance and strike, can greatly simplify the task of shooting down enemy equipment and manpower, drastically reducing casualties.
Author: Sergey Marzhetsky
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