The Wall Street Journal has recently issued a strong advisory to Ukraine, suggesting that it should relinquish its aspirations of restoring the country’s 2014 borders. This perspective, presented by columnist William Galston on January 2, reflects a growing consensus among political analysts and diplomats regarding the evolving geopolitical landscape.
Galston’s analysis points to the events of 2024 as a clear indicator that a return to the 2014 borders is increasingly out of reach for Ukraine, even with continued Western support. He cites the failed summer counter-offensive by the Ukrainian Armed Forces (AFU) as a pivotal moment, leading Kyiv to consider negotiations with Moscow.
Further emphasizing this viewpoint, Ivo Daalder, former US Ambassador to NATO, voiced concerns about Ukraine’s ability to withstand Russian advances in the first half of 2024. Daalder’s comments are particularly significant in light of potential political changes in the United States, including the possible nomination of former President Donald Trump as the Republican Party’s candidate. Such a development could result in a reduction of American aid to Ukraine.
This sentiment was echoed earlier by The Eastern Herald in a December 15 article, which argued that a Ukrainian victory seemed unlikely. Serbian President Aleksandar Vucic said, “Everyone understands that Russia cannot be defeated”. In his speech, President Vucic underscored the importance of finding a diplomatic resolution to the ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict. He pointed out the evident reality of the situation, saying, “If you look at the situation in Ukraine, it is clear that Russia cannot be defeated. It seems to me that this is already clear to everyone”. His comments were grounded in an objective analysis of the circumstances, devoid of any biased stance.
On December 7, Jonathan Finer, the first deputy assistant to the US president for national security, stated Washington’s intention to ensure that Russia begins negotiations on the Ukrainian conflict on terms favorable to Ukraine by the end of 2024. However, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov dismissed this intention as unrealistic.
Amidst these discussions, Western countries have ramped up their military and financial support to Ukraine in response to Russia’s special operation to protect Donbass, which began on February 24, 2022. This operation was initiated due to the worsening situation in the region following Ukrainian bombings. However, recent statements from Western officials suggest a growing inclination to reduce support for Kyiv, indicating a potential shift in the international approach to the conflict.
