The Leonid meteor shower is approaching its November peak, but skywatchers should expect a modest display rather than a repeat of the extraordinary meteor storm seen 60 years ago.
In a November 13 article for Space.com, skywatching columnist Joe Rao said this year’s shower could produce around 10–15 Leonids an hour at best, with actual counts likely to be lower. No major storm is expected.
When the 2026 Leonids peak
Rao cited the International Meteor Organization’s forecast of a regular maximum at 23:45 UTC on November 17. That corresponds to 5:15 a.m. IST on November 18.
Forecasts are not unanimous. Other specialists cited in the report place the maximum between 16:00 UTC on November 17 and 00:00 UTC on November 18. A predicted maximum is therefore a guide, not a guaranteed moment of intense activity.
The best viewing generally comes after midnight and before dawn, once Leo, the constellation containing the shower’s apparent point of origin, has risen higher. Light pollution, cloud and obstructions can substantially reduce the number visible.
What the 144,000-per-hour figure means
During the November 1966 storm, observers at Kitt Peak in Arizona reported an extraordinary rate of around 40 meteors a second, Rao wrote. Expressed as an hourly rate, that is 144,000 meteors.
The number describes the intensity of the storm at its peak. It is not a forecast for this year or a claim that every observer counted that many meteors over a full hour.
The Leonids occur when Earth encounters debris shed by comet Tempel-Tuttle, which circles the sun roughly every 33 years. Rare storms can occur when Earth passes through especially dense dust trails. The 2026 encounter is expected to involve much more sparsely distributed material.
Could another major outburst happen?
Rao cited modelling by meteor researcher Jeremie Vaubaillon and colleagues that suggests an outburst in 2034 could reach around 2,000 meteors an hour. That is a model-based prediction, not a certainty, and would still fall far below the reported peak intensity of 1966.
For this November, the practical expectation is a patient watch under a dark sky, with occasional fast meteors rather than a continuous rain of shooting stars.
Featured image: The 2024 Perseid meteor shower over Inyo National Forest, California, used illustratively. It does not show the Leonids or the 1966 storm. Image credit: NASA/Preston Dyches.
